What Do Swing States Voters Think of Trump’s Guilty Verdict?

June 28, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Donald Trump | Law & Order | Republican Party | US Presidential Election 2024

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research

On 31 May 2024, Donald Trump made a piece of—unwanted—history. 

Having been found guilty on all 34 counts in his New York “hush money” trial, Trump became the first US President in history to be convicted of committing a crime. While Trump immediately branded the case “a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt” and Republican elected officials rushed to his defence, the unprecedented verdict adds another unpredictable element to Trump’s quest to regain the White House in November’s Presidential Election.

In our most recent poll of swing state voters, conducted in partnership with The Telegraph, we asked voters for their reaction to the verdict and what effect they thought Trump’s conviction will have on both his chances of re-election and their own likelihood to vote for him.

Between 56% (Michigan) and 65% (Florida and Pennsylvania) of voters in the swing states polled say they are ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ familiar with Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York, as against only between 10% and 17% who say they are ‘not at all’ familiar with the trial. 

Pluralities of voters in all six states polled believe the former President received a fair trial in New York, although between 35% and 41% believe he did not.

Between 76% and 85% of likely Biden voters believe Trump did receive a fair trial, while between 63% and 75% of likely Trump voters believe he did not receive a fair trial.

The New York trial is only one among the litany of legal issues piling up against the former President, although it is likely to be one of the few cases in which a verdict will be delivered before the election.

When asked what they think about the wider array of legal proceedings facing Trump—not just the New York case—narrow pluralities of voters in Arizona (44%), Florida (41%), Michigan (40%), and North Carolina (42%) say the proceedings are politically motivated attacks. However, pluralities of voters in Georgia (41%) and Pennsylvania (47%) say the proceedings are legitimate and legal.   

Ultimately, the major political question in the wake of Donald Trump’s guilty verdict is what effect they have on his standing with voters.

On that front, our polling is encouraging for the former President.

Pluralities of voters in all six swing states polled—between 34% and 43%, depending on the state—say Trump’s guilty conviction makes them more likely to vote for him in November, against between 22% and 29% who say his conviction makes them less likely to do so.

Furthermore, pluralities of voters in all six states think Trump’s guilty conviction makes his re-election as President more likely.

Between 33% (Michigan) and 39% (Florida) of voters think Trump’s re-election is now more likely as a result of his conviction, against 24% to 30% who think his re-election is less likely as a result of his conviction.

Trump’s sentencing hearing in his New York trial is scheduled for 11 July, just four days before the Republican National Convention kicks-off in Milwaukee.

With the Biden campaign already making Trump’s conviction a central point of their pitch to voters, it remains to be seen what effect the conviction and any sentence will potentially have on the campaign. What is certain is that Trump’s conviction and his other outstanding legal issues have added a degree of legal uncertainty unprecedented in the history of American Presidential Elections.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research