Westminster Voting Intention, By Living Area (3-5 February 2024)

February 14, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Cities & Urban Life | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Labour Party | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Since 2005, the proportion of Labour MPs who represent rural seats has declined at every General Election, to the point where, today, less than 1% of Labour MPs represent a rural constituency. 

By contrast, more than a quarter of the Conservative Party’s MPs elected in 2019 represent rural seats.

But with the poll fortunes of the two parties now moving in opposite directions, Labour appears set to make gains not only in the inner cities and built-up areas, but in the countryside as well.

Looking further into our 5,000-sample poll conducted and published last week, which found Labour 21% ahead and leading among various voter groups, we also find Labour holds wide leads over the Conservatives in towns and rural areas, notwithstanding their already substantial leads in city centres and city suburbs.

Overall, 15% of our 5000-strong sample say they live in a city centre, 28% in city suburbs, 38% in towns, and 18% in rural areas.

Among voters who live in a city centre, Labour takes nearly half the vote (46%) and leads the Conservatives by 30%. In city suburbs, Labour leads by 20% (41% to 21%), while in towns, Labour’s advantage over the Conservatives is 17% (38% to 21%).

Most strikingly, 29% of rural voters would now vote for Labour, against 20% who would vote for the Conservatives.

Beyond the main two parties, between 9% and 11% of voters would vote for the Liberal Democrats across the four types of areas, while Reform UK achieves its highest vote share in rural areas (18%) and its lowest among voters who live in city centres (9%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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