West Midlands Mayoral Election Voting Intention (22-24 April 2024)

April 25, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Elections | Keir Starmer | Local Elections | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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With just one week to go until the West Midlands Mayoral Election on 2 May, our latest West Midlands Mayoral Voting Intention poll suggests that the Conservative incumbent, Andy Street, remains on course to lose his re-election bid, but that he has narrowed the gap from our previous poll by eight points to now trail by just 6%.

Altogether, the results of our latest poll (with changes from 10-14 April in parentheses) are as follows:

Richard Parker (Labour) 43% (+1)
Andy Street (Conservative) 37% (+9)
Sunny Virk (Liberal Democrat) 8% (+1)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 5% (-2)
Elaine Williams (Reform UK) 4% (-9)
Another candidate 3% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a Mayoral Election are included, Parker again leads Street by 6%.

After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 5% of those who voted for Street in 2021, 3% of those who voted for his Labour opponent, Liam Byrne, and 24% of those who did not vote in 2021.

Altogether, Street retains the support of 77% of those who voted for him in 2021, up from just 60% in our previous poll. 11% of his 2021 supporters would now vote for Parker, while another 3% would vote for the Liberal Democrat Sunny Virk.

Crucially, when compared to our previous poll, only 1% of those who voted for Street in 2021 now say they would vote for the Reform UK candidate, Elaine Williams, compared to 11% in our previous poll.

Parker, meanwhile, retains the support of 79% of those who voted for Byrne in 2021, with 8% of Byrne’s voters at that election now saying they would vote for Sunny Virk, while a further 7% would vote for Siobhan Harper-Nunes of the Green Party.

Among those who did not vote in 2021, Parker takes 37% of the vote, more than double Street’s 18% among this constituency of voters.

28% of those who say they will vote for Parker say they did not vote in 2021. By comparison, only 16% of those who say they will vote for Street did not vote in 2021. 

For context, turnout in the 2021 West Midlands Mayoral Election was just 31%.

As campaigning and coverage of the West Midlands Mayoral Election have increased as the vote approaches, so have voters’ levels of familiarity with the candidates running for Mayor.

62% of voters in the West Midlands County say they are now ‘very’ (26%) or ‘fairly’ (36%) familiar with Andy Street, compared to only 47% of voters who said they were ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ familiar with him in our previous poll. 

Voters are also now slightly more familiar with his main opponent, Richard Parker. The percentage of voters who say they are ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ familiar with Parker has increased to 34% (+4), while the percentage of those who say they are ‘not at all’ familiar with him has fallen to 43% (-6).

It is also worth noting that only 45% of respondents surveyed say they are ‘certain to vote’ in the West Midlands Mayoral Election.

Among only these voters (i.e., applying an even more aggressive turnout weighting than usual), Street leads with 40% to Parker’s 37%, with 6% saying they will vote for Virk and 7% undecided.

As such, our polling indicates that the result of this election will not only be close but will also hinge on how well each candidate performs at getting their voters to turn out.

When asked which issues would most determine how they would vote if they were to vote in the West Midlands Mayoral Election, respondents most commonly cite healthcare (59%), the economy (57%), and policing/crime (47%).

West Midlands Mayor Andy Street has a net approval rating of +22%, up ten points from our previous poll. 39% (+8) approve and 17% (-2) disapprove of his overall job performance since becoming West Midlands Mayor.

On his handling of major issues, Mayor Street holds positive net satisfaction ratings for his policies on most issues prompted, including policing/crime (+13%), transport (+11%), education (+7%), the economy (+5%), and housing (+1%).

At the same time, voters express net dissatisfaction with the Mayor’s policies on the issues of taxation (-9%).

However, voters in the West Midlands believe the Mayor and the West Midlands Combined Authority have less power and responsibility than the Prime Minister and Westminster on the majority of policy issues.

In fact, transport is the only issue on which more voters think the Mayor and the Combined Authority have more power and responsibility than the Prime Minister and Westminster (46% to 36%). An equal number of respondents believe the national and local Government have the most power and responsibility when it comes to housing (41% each).

When it comes to securing funding from the central government for the area, 33% (–) think Street has done neither a good nor a bad job securing funding and support from Westminster for the West Midlands. 32% (+8) think he has done a good job, and 21% (–) think he has done a bad job.

In contrast to the narrow, 6% lead for the Labour candidate in our Mayoral Voting Intention poll, Labour is in a considerably stronger position in our Westminster Voting Intention poll, which finds the party 20% ahead of the Conservatives in West Midlands County.

Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 10-14 April in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 50% (-2)
Conservative 30% (+6)
Reform UK 9% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 7% (–)
Green 3% (-2)
Other 1% (–)

For context, the Conservatives and Labour were tied at 44% each in the West Midlands County in the 2019 General Election, with both parties winning fourteen constituencies each.

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 8% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 8% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and only 1% of those who voted Labour. 

Just 62% of voters in the West Midlands who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again. 17% of 2019 Conservative voters in the county now intend to vote for Labour, while 11% say they would vote for Reform UK. 

By comparison, 79% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will vote for Andy Street in the upcoming West Midlands Mayoral Election.

Similarly, whereas Street is holding onto 77% of those who voted for him in 2021, only 56% of his 2021 voters say they would vote for the Conservative Party in a General Election.

Altogether, just 71% of those who presently say they will vote for Street in the coming West Midlands Mayoral Election say they would vote for the Conservative Party in the General Election. 14% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for Reform.

Prime Minister Sunak himself holds a net approval rating in the West Midlands of -19%, 41 points worse than Street’s rating.

46% (-1) say they disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Prime Minister, against 27% (-1) who approve.

On his handling of major issues, Sunak holds negative net approval ratings on the majority of policy issues prompted.

Voters in the West Midlands give Sunak negative approval ratings for his handling of issues including the NHS (-27%), immigration (-22%), housing (-21%), and the economy (-15%).

Finally, Keir Starmer, the Leader of the Labour Party, holds a net approval rating in the West Midlands of +15%. 39% approve and 24% disapprove of Starmer’s overall job performance since he became Labour leader.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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