Texas Independence Voting Intention (1-3 February)

February 7, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Immigration | Texas | US Elections | US Government | US Politics | Voting Intention

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As Texan authorities continue their dispute with the Biden Administration over policies along the southern border, the widespread perception that Texas is facing a migrant crisis is helping fuel a rise in support for Texan independence.

As it stands, if Texas were to hold a referendum on whether it should be a State within the US or be an independent country, 67% of likely voters would vote to remain within the United States.

But support for independence is not negligible. Almost a quarter (23%) of Texans would vote in favor of Texan independence in such a referendum.

89% of Biden 2020 voters would vote to remain within the United States, while more than one-third (36%) of Trump 2020 voters would vote in favor of seceding from the Union.

In response to a differently structured question, 33% of Texans, including a majority (55%) of Trump 2020 voters, would support Texas seceding from the United States and becoming an independent republic, against 39% who would outright oppose such a move. 

On the principle of whether a State should be allowed to secede from the United States, a plurality of 45% agree that a State should be allowed to do so if a majority of its voters vote for secession. 25% disagree.

And in the unlikely event that Texas did vote to secede, most Texas are confident that the new Republic would be successful.

44% agree and 30% disagree that Texas could succeed as an independent country if it left the United States.

As such, while the great majority of Texans would vote to stay within the United States, such a vote does not appear to stem from a lack of confidence in Texas’ ability to stand on its own as much as it comes from an attachment to and belief in the United States.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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