Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (6-7 April 2024)

April 10, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | Scottish Independence | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Scottish Westminster Voting Intention poll finds Labour leading the Scottish National Party by one point in Scotland.

For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19%, winning only a single Scottish seat.

Altogether the results (with changes from 10-11 March in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 33% (-1)
Scottish National Party 32% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+2)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Green 2% (-2)
Alba Party 2% (+1)
Other 0% (–)

58% of Scottish voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the NHS (54%). 

15% of respondents cite Scottish Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow, the lowest percentage of voters ever in our Scottish polling to name it as one of their top three issues, and making it only the seventh most commonly selected overall issue. Among 2019 SNP voters Scottish Independence is only the third most commonly selected issue (28%) behind the NHS (65%), and the economy (60%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -26%, up eight points from last month. Our poll finds 52% (-4) of Scots disapprove of his overall job performance against 26% (+4) who approve.

43% (-3) disapprove of Jeremy Hunt’s performance as Chancellor of the Exchequer, compared to 23% (+3) who approve, giving him a net approval rating of -20% (+6). 

Asked their view on the UK Government, a majority of Scots (62%, -3) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 15% (+2) view the UK Government as competent.

On its policy performance, Scottish voters give the UK Government negative net approval ratings on every policy issue listed, including on the NHS (-39%), the economy (-35%), and housing (-35%).

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Scotland stands at +2%, up three points from our previous poll. 35% (+2) of Scottish voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 33% (-1) who disapprove. 

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 43% (-1) of Scottish voters say Keir Starmer and 22% (-2) say Rishi Sunak. A further 34% (+2) say they don’t know.

The next Scottish Parliamentary Election is not due to be held until May 2026.

However, when voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, the Scottish National Party’s lead over Labour in our constituency voting intention poll has narrowed by two points to 2%, while Labour now holds a three-point advantage over the SNP in our regional list voting intention poll. 

Altogether the results of our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 10-11 March in parentheses) are as follows: 

Scottish National Party 34% (-1)
Scottish Labour 32% (+1)
Scottish Conservatives 21% (+3)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)
Reform UK Scotland 3% (-1)
Scottish Green Party 2% (-1)
Alba Party 2% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)

When voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot, Labour (29%, –) leads the SNP (26%, -2) by three points, with the Scottish Conservatives nine points further back in third position on 17% (+1).

Humza Yousaf’s latest net approval rating is -5%, up eleven points from last month. 32% (+7) approve and 37% (-4) disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland.

A plurality (37%, -6) say the current Scottish Government is incompetent, compared to 30% (+2) who say it is competent.

The Scottish Government earns positive ratings for its policy performance on issues including the coronavirus pandemic (+28%), the environment (+10%), cultural issues (+9%), and education (+4%).

The Scottish Government holds negative net approval ratings for its handling of issues including housing (-7%), gender reform (-4%), the NHS (-3%), and the economy (-2%). 

38% approve of the Scottish Government’s performance on Scottish independence, compared to 33% who disapprove.

Scottish voters believe Humza Yousaf would be a better First Minister for Scotland than both Douglas Ross and Anas Sarwar

Yousaf (36%, –) leads Ross (29, -1%) by seven points, while regaining his lead over Sarwar (35%, +4 vs 30%, -2) after the latter had taken the lead last month.

Finally, our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘yes’ leading by 2%, the first lead for ‘yes’ in our hypothetical independence referendum poll since November 2022.   

44% (+1) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘yes’ and 42% (-4) say they would vote ‘no’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 14% (+3) don’t know how they would vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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