Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (26-27 November 2023)

November 29, 2023
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | Scottish Independence | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest monthly Scottish Westminster Voting Intention poll finds Labour leading the Scottish National Party in Scotland by 2%.

This poll is the first time Labour has led in our Scottish Westminster Voting Intention tracker poll and marks only the third time Labour has led the SNP in any Westminster Voting Intention poll publicly released by any company since June 2014.

The 36% for Labour in this latest poll is also their highest vote share in our Scottish voting intention polling to date.

For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19%, winning only a single Scottish seat.

Altogether the results (with changes from 29-30 October in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 36% (+4)
Scottish National Party 34% (+2)
Conservative 17% (-6)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-2)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Green 2% (–)
Other 0% (-1)

64% of Scottish voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the NHS (59%).

16% of respondents cite Scottish Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow. Among 2019 SNP voters, Scottish Independence is only the third most commonly selected issue (29%), behind the economy (66%) and the NHS (65%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -32%, down thirteen points from last month, and the lowest rating he has held in our monthly Scottish tracker. Our poll finds 53% (+7) of Scots disapprove of his overall job performance against 21% (-6) who approve.

41% (-4) disapprove of Jeremy Hunt’s performance as Chancellor of the Exchequer, compared to 20% (+1) who approve, giving him a net approval rating of -21% (+5).

Asked their view on the UK Government, a majority of Scots (62%, +2) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 15% (-3) view the UK Government as competent.

On its policy performance, Scottish voters give the UK Government negative net approval ratings on every policy issue listed, including on the NHS (-44%), the economy (-39%), and housing (-38%).

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Scotland stands at +1%, down ten points from our previous poll. 31% (-6) of Scottish voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 30% (+4) who disapprove.

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 41% of Scottish voters say Keir Starmer and 21% say Rishi Sunak. 38% say they don’t know.

Humza Yousaf’s latest net approval rating is -14%, down ten points from last month. 26% (-6) approve and 40% (+4) disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland.

A plurality (43%, +3) say the current Scottish Government is incompetent, compared to 25% (-8) who say it is competent.

The Scottish Government earns positive net approval ratings for its policy performance on the coronavirus pandemic (+21%), cultural issues (+5%), and the environment (+4%).

The Scottish Government holds negative net approval ratings for its handling of issues such as drug policy (-14%), crime/policing (-14%), and gender reform (-13%). 

36% disapprove of the Scottish Government’s performance on Scottish independence, compared to 33% who approve (-3% net approval).

Scottish voters believe Humza Yousaf would be a better First Minister for Scotland than either Douglas Ross or Anas Sarwar

Yousaf (36%, -5) leads Ross (29%, +3) by seven points, while Yousaf (33%, -2) also leads Sarwar (29%, +1) by four points.

Finally, our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 2%

48% (-2) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘no’ and 46% (+1) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 6% (+1) don’t know how they would vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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