Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (26-27 June 2024)

June 28, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | Scottish Independence | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Scottish Westminster Voting Intention poll, our second since the General Election was called for 4 July, finds Labour leading the Scottish National Party by 6% in Scotland, four points lower than in our previous poll conducted on 1-2 June.

With 11%, the Conservative Party record their lowest ever vote share in our Scottish polling.

Conversely, with 8%, Reform UK achieve their highest vote share to date in our Scottish tracker and have overtaken the Liberal Democrats into fourth place.

For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19%, winning only a single Scottish seat.

Altogether the results (with changes from 1-2 June in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 38% (-1)
Scottish National Party 32% (+3)
Conservative 11% (-6)
Reform UK 8% (+4)
Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
Green 3% (–)
Alba Party 1% (–)
Other 0% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads the SNP by 5% in Scotland. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 6% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 5% of those who voted for the SNP in December 2019, 4% of those who voted for the Conservatives, and 3% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election in Scotland now say they will vote Labour again.

Only 64% of Scottish voters who voted for the SNP in 2019 now say they will vote for the SNP again on 4 July. 17% now intend to vote for Labour, 4% will vote for Reform UK, and 3% each will vote for either of the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. 5% of 2019 SNP voters are undecided.

Just over one-third (37%) of those who voted for the Conservatives in Scotland in 2019 would now vote Conservative again.

The same number (37%) of 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland now intend to vote for Labour. 14% of 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland now say they will vote for Reform UK, while 4% each will vote for the Liberal Democrats or the SNP.

63% of Scottish voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (61%). 

18% of respondents cite Scottish Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow, making it only the sixth most commonly selected issue. Among 2019 SNP voters Scottish Independence is only the third most commonly selected issue (33%) behind the NHS (69%), and the economy (57%).

70% of Scottish voters believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, as against only 13% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -37%, down three points from our previous Scottish poll in early June. Our poll finds 58% (+5) of Scots disapprove of his overall job performance against 21% (+2) who approve.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Scotland stands at +8%, up four points since our previous poll. 38% (+5) of Scottish voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 30% (+1) who disapprove. 

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 51% (+7) of Scottish voters say Keir Starmer and 17% (-4) say Rishi Sunak, giving Starmer his largest lead ever over Sunak in our Scottish polling. A further 32% (-3) say they don’t know.

The next Scottish Parliamentary Election is not due to be held until May 2026.

However, when voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, Labour has regained a narrow 1% lead over the Scottish National Party in our constituency voting intention poll

The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, fall to their lowest ever vote share (14%) in our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll.

Altogether the results of our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 1-2 June in parentheses) are as follows: 

Scottish Labour 34% (+2)
Scottish National Party 33% (–)
Scottish Conservatives 14% (-3)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Reform UK Scotland 6% (+2)
Scottish Green Party 3% (+1)
Alba Party 1% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)

Labour has also regained the lead in our regional list voting intention poll, with the party now 7% ahead of the SNP.

When voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot, Labour (34%, +6) leads the SNP (27%, -4) by seven points, with the Scottish Conservatives thirteen points further back in third position on 14% (-1).

John Swinney, who replaced Humza Yousaf as Leader of the SNP and Scottish First Minister at the start of May, receives a net approval rating from Scottish voters of -5% (-7)

30% (+1) approve and 35% (+8) disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland.

Scottish voters do, however, believe Swinney would be a better First Minister for Scotland than both Anas Sarwar and Douglas Ross

Swinney (40%, +1) leads Sarwar (28%, +2) by twelve points, while Swinney (37%, -1) leads Douglas Ross (24%, -4) by thirteen points.  

Finally, our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 2%.   

48% (-1) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘no’ and 46% (–) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 6% (+1) don’t know how they would vote. 

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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