Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (10-11 March 2024)

March 13, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | Scottish Independence | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Scottish Westminster Voting Intention poll finds Labour and the Scottish National Party are now tied in Scotland.

For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19%, winning only a single Scottish seat.

Altogether the results (with changes from 3-4 February in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 34% (–)
Scottish National Party 34% (+1)
Conservative 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-2)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 4% (+2)
Alba Party 1% (–)
Other 0% (–)

64% of Scottish voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the NHS (62%). 

16% of respondents cite Scottish Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow, making it only the seventh most commonly selected issue. Among 2019 SNP voters Scottish Independence is only the fourth most commonly selected issue (25%) behind the NHS (65%), the economy (61%), and immigration (26%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -34%, unchanged from last month and the joint-lowest rating he has held in our monthly Scottish tracker. Our poll finds 56% (–) of Scots disapprove of his overall job performance, against 22% (–) who approve.

46% (+6) disapprove of Jeremy Hunt’s performance as Chancellor of the Exchequer, compared to 20% (+1) who approve, giving him a net approval rating of -26% (-5). 

Asked their view on the UK Government, a majority of Scots (65%, +2) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 13% (-1) view the UK Government as competent.

On its policy performance, Scottish voters give the UK Government negative net approval ratings on every policy issue listed, including on the NHS (-50%), the economy (-47%), and housing (-44%).

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Scotland stands at -1%, down four points from our previous poll and his lowest rating in Scotland since June 2023. 33% (-1) of Scottish voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 34% (+3) who disapprove. 

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 44% (-3) of Scottish voters say Keir Starmer and 24% (+4) say Rishi Sunak. A further 32% (-2) say they don’t know.

The next Scottish Parliamentary Election is not due to be held until May 2026.

However, when voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, the Scottish National Party’s lead over Labour in our constituency voting intention poll has widened by two points to 4%, while Labour holds a one-point advantage over the SNP in our regional list voting intention poll. 

Altogether the results of our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 3-4 February in parentheses) are as follows: 

Scottish National Party 35% (–)
Scottish Labour 31% (-2)
Scottish Conservatives 18% (–)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5% (-3)
Reform UK Scotland 4% (+1)
Scottish Green Party 3% (–)
Alba Party 3% (+2)
Other 0% (–)

When voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot, Labour (29%, –) leads the SNP (28%, +1) by one point, with the Scottish Conservatives twelve points further back in third position on 16% (–).

Humza Yousaf’s latest net approval rating is -16%, up one point from last month. 25% (–) approve and 41% (-1) disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland.

A plurality (43%, +2) say the current Scottish Government is incompetent, compared to 28% (+3) who say it is competent.

The Scottish Government earns positive ratings for its policy performance on the coronavirus pandemic (+21%), the environment (+9%), and cultural issues (+1).

The Scottish Government holds negative net approval ratings for its handling of issues including housing (-19%), the economy (-14%), and gender reform (-14%). 

42% disapprove of the Scottish Government’s performance on Scottish independence, compared to 34% who approve.

For the first time in our polling, Labour’s Anas Sarwar leads Humza Yousaf on the question of who would be the better First Minister for Scotland. Yousaf continues to lead over the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross.

Yousaf (36%, -3) leads Ross (30, +2%) by six points, while Sarwar (32%, -1) leads Yousaf (31%, -2) by one point.

Finally, our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 3%.  

46% (-1) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘no’ and 43% (–) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 11% (+1) don’t know how they would vote. 

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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