Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (1-2 June 2024)

June 4, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | Scottish Independence | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research

Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Scottish Westminster Voting Intention poll, our first since the General Election was called for 4 July, finds Labour leading the Scottish National Party by 10% in Scotland, three points higher than in our previous poll last month, and the joint-largest lead recorded by any polling company for Labour in Scotland since May 2013.

The 39% for Labour in this latest poll is their highest vote share in our Scottish voting intention polling to date and the joint-highest share of the vote they have recorded in any Westminster Voting Intention poll publicly released by any company since October 2013.

Conversely, the 29% for the SNP in today’s poll is the joint-lowest share of the vote they have recorded in any Westminster Voting Intention poll publicly released by any company since May 2013.

For context, the SNP came first in Scotland in the 2019 General Election, taking 45% of the vote and 48 seats, with the Conservatives in second, winning 25% of the vote and six seats. Labour came third at 19%, winning only a single Scottish seat.

Altogether the results (with changes from 8-9 May in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 39% (+1)
Scottish National Party 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba Party 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads the SNP by 9% in Scotland. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 10% of those who voted for either the SNP or the Conservatives in December 2019 and just 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 80% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election in Scotland now say they would vote Labour again.

Only 50% of Scottish voters who voted for the SNP in 2019 now say they would vote for the SNP again on 4 July. 27% would now vote for Labour, 3% would vote for each of the Greens and Alba, and 2% would vote for each of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Just over half (55%) of those who voted for the Conservatives in Scotland in 2019 would now vote Conservative again.

18% of 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland now say they would vote for Labour, 7% each would vote for Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats, and 3% would vote for the SNP.

59% of Scottish voters cite the NHS and the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election. 

19% of respondents cite Scottish Independence/The Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow, making it only the fifth most commonly selected issue. Among 2019 SNP voters Scottish Independence is only the third most commonly selected issue (27%) behind the NHS (63%), and the economy (53%).

Two-thirds (67%) of Scottish voters believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, as against only 15% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -34%, up twelve points from our previous Scottish poll in May. Our poll finds 53% (-8) of Scots disapprove of his overall job performance against 19% (+4) who approve.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Scotland stands at +4%, up two points since May. 33% (–) of Scottish voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 29% (-2) who disapprove.

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 44% (-4) of Scottish voters say Keir Starmer and 21% (+5) say Rishi Sunak. A further 35% (-1) say they don’t know.

The next Scottish Parliamentary Election is not due to be held until May 2026.

However, when voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, the Scottish National Party regains a narrow 1% lead over Labour in our constituency voting intention poll

Altogether the results of our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 8-9 May in parentheses) are as follows: 

Scottish National Party 33% (–)
Scottish Labour 32% (-3)
Scottish Conservatives 17% (+2)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 9% (–)
Reform UK Scotland 4% (+1)
Scottish Green Party 2% (-1)
Alba Party 2% (+1)
Other 0% (–)

The SNP has also regained the lead over Labour in our regional list voting intention poll, with the party now 3% ahead of Labour.

When voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot, the SNP (31%, +4) leads Labour (28%, -5) by three points, with the Scottish Conservatives thirteen points further back in third position on 15% (+1).

John Swinney, who replaced Humza Yousaf as Leader of the SNP and Scottish First Minister at the start of May, receives a first net approval rating in our Scottish tracker of +2%

29% approve and 27% disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Leader of the SNP and First Minister of Scotland.

Scottish voters believe John Swinney would be a better First Minister for Scotland than both Anas Sarwar and Douglas Ross

Swinney (39%) leads Sarwar (26%) by thirteen points, while Swinney (38%) leads Douglas Ross (28%) by ten points.  

Finally, our latest Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 3%.   

49% (+1) of Scottish respondents now say they would vote ‘no’ and 46% (+2) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country. 5% (-3) don’t know how they would vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research