Research conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in August indicates that a plurality (41%) of the US public think that Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential Election was the main reason Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, less than a third (33%) disagree that Russian interference was the primary reason behind Trump’s victory.

We found a significant division along political lines, with two-thirds (67%) of those intending to vote for Trump this November disagreeing that Russian interference was the main reason for Trump’s election in 2016 and two-thirds (66%) of those intending to vote for Biden agreeing. Surprisingly, 28% of those who intend on voting for Trump in 2020 think that Russian interference was the main reason for his election in 2016.

On the other hand, a plurality (41%) of respondents agree that the Trump campaign was spied on by the FBI during the 2016 Presidential Election with only a fifth (20%) of respondents disagreeing.  

In particular, a large majority (69%) of those who intend on voting for Donald Trump agree that Trump’s campaign was spied on.

Regarding the Mueller Report, which investigated whether Donald Trump colluded with the Russian Government to win the election, we found that two-thirds (67%) of those who intend to vote for Trump in the upcoming election say that the report cleared President Trump of allegations of collusion with the Russian Government while 53% of those intending to vote for Biden think otherwise.

It is clear that four years after the election, allegations that Donald Trump colluded with the Russian Government remain divisive and politically relevant, despite a formal investigation. Overall, our research suggests that a significant plurality of  the US public agrees that Russian interference contributed to Trump’s victory and also that the FBI spied on his campaign.