New York City Presidential Voting Intention and Approval Ratings (12-14 May 2024)

May 20, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Donald Trump | Immigration | International Relations | Joe Biden | New York | US Presidential Election 2024

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Suffice to say, no one expects New York City to be especially close or competitive in the coming US Presidential Election.

The city has not voted for a Republican for President since voting for Calvin Coolidge in 1924. The last Republican Presidential candidate to force the Democratic candidate’s share of the vote in New York City below 60% was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (although incumbent Democratic President, Jimmy Carter, still won 54% of the vote in the city in that contest).

In 2020, Joe Biden won more than three-quarters (76%) of the vote in New York City, against 23% for long-time Manhattan resident Donald Trump.

Now, as President Biden gears up for re-election and Donald Trump spends his days stuck in a New York courtroom, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies find that President Biden is running significantly below his 2020 performance in New York City currently.

Our poll, conducted in partnership with Newsweek, finds that only 56% of New Yorkers currently intend to vote for Joe Biden on 5 November, down 20% from his 2020 vote share. 26% would vote for Trump, three points better than his 2020 performance, while 5% would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 4% would vote for other third-party candidates, and a further 8% are currently undecided how they would vote.

President Biden retains the support of 79% of those who voted for him in 2020, while 8% of those who voted for the President in 2020 would now vote for Donald Trump.

By comparison, 87% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 would do so again in 2024, while 3% would switch to voting for Joe Biden. Among those who did not vote in 2020, 30% would vote for Donald Trump, and 24% would vote for Joe Biden.

Intriguingly, while majorities in every other age cohort would now vote for Joe Biden, a plurality of those aged 18-26 (39%) would vote for Donald Trump.

59% of New Yorkers approve of President Biden’s overall job performance, against 25% who disapprove, giving him an overall net approval rating of +34%.

In comparison, Donald Trump holds a net approval rating for his performance as President of 0%, with equal numbers of New Yorkers retrospectively approving and disapproving of his time in office (43% each).

There is a wide gender gap in appraisals of Trump’s time in office, with men giving him a net approval rating of +15%, while women give Trump a net rating of -13%.

Regarding Donald Trump’s on-going criminal trial, a plurality of New Yorkers believe Donald Trump’s plethora of legal issues make his re-election as President more likely.

35% think Donald Trump’s ongoing legal issues make his re-election as President more likely. 31%, meanwhile, think Trump’s legal issues make his re-election less likely.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, has his issues too, including the war in Gaza.

While the conflict risks splitting the President’s Democratic coalition and causing headaches heading into the November election, voters in New York City broadly approve of how both the US Government and the President have responded to the conflict.

The US Government earns a net approval rating of +8% for how it has responded to the conflict, while the President’s net approval rating on the issue stands at +9%.

Indeed, 40% of New Yorkers say the President’s handling of the War in Gaza has made them more likely to vote for him in November, while 21% say it has made them less likely to do so.

More voters in every age group say Biden’s handling of the conflict has made them more rather than less likely to vote for him except for those aged 18-26, among whom an equal number of 35% each say the President’s handling of the war has made them either more or less likely to vote for him.

While immigration has long been a major policy headache for the Biden Administration, numbers from US Border Protection for March and April suggest the number of illegal border crossings are significantly down from the record highs they reached at the end of 2023

The fall in numbers appears to be reflected in a marked improvement in President Biden’s ratings among New Yorkers on his management of the migrant issue.

In September, 42% of New Yorkers disapproved and only 33% approved of President Biden’s job performance in managing migrants crossing the southern border, for a net approval rating of -9%.

Now, 39% approve (+6) and 33% disapprove (-9) of President Biden’s management of migrants crossing the southern border, for an overall net approval rating of +6% (+15).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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