London Mayoral Election Voting Intention (6-8 April 2024)

April 11, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Local Elections | London | London Mayoral Election 2024 | Sadiq Khan | UK Elections

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The London Mayoral Election is now less than one month away. Incumbent Mayor Sadiq Khan is running as the Labour candidate, seeking an unprecedented third term as Mayor, while his main challenger is current London Assembly member Susan Hall, whom the Conservatives last summer selected as their nominee.

Last September, in the immediate aftermath of the contentious decision to expand London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) into the outer boroughs of the city, our previous London Mayoral Voting Intention poll found Khan only one point ahead of Hall.

This week, however, we find that Sadiq Khan now holds a commanding lead over Hall of 13% and appears well on course for re-election to an historic third term.

Altogether, the results of our latest poll are as follows:

Sadiq Khan (Labour) 43%
Susan Hall (Conservative) 30%
Zoë Garbett (Green) 10%
Rob Blackie (Liberal Democrat) 8%
Howard Cox (Reform UK) 7%
Another candidate 2%

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a Mayoral Election are included, Khan leads Hall by 11%.

After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 7% of those who voted for Sadiq Khan in 2021 in the first round and 6% of those who voted for Shaun Bailey.

Altogether, Khan retains the support of 73% of those who gave him their first preference vote in the 2021 election, when the election was run under a supplementary vote system. 8% of his 2021 supporters would now vote for Hall and a further 8% for either Green Party candidate Zoë Garbett (4%) or Liberal Democrat Rob Blackie (4%).

Susan Hall, meanwhile, retains the support of 67% of those who voted for Shaun Bailey as their first preference in 2021, with 9% of his voters at that election now saying they would vote for Khan, and a further 16% for either Blackie (7%), Reform UK candidate Howard Cox (6%), or Garbett (3%).

When asked which issues would most determine how they would vote if a London Mayoral Election were to be held tomorrow, the economy (52%), healthcare (46%), and housing (43%) are the three most commonly cited issues.

Sadiq Khan’s net approval rating is up eight points from our previous London poll in September to now stand at +13%. In our latest poll, 42% (+4) approve and 29% (-4) disapprove of his overall job performance since becoming London Mayor. 

On his handling of major issues, Mayor Khan holds positive net satisfaction ratings among Londoner’s for his policies on issues including the environment (+12%), education (+10%), transport (+9%), and policing/crime (+1%).

However, Londoner’s express net dissatisfaction with the Mayor’s policies on issues including housing (-8%), taxation (-7%), and the economy (-1%)

In something of a contrast to Khan’s comparatively narrower lead in the Mayoral race, Labour now holds a 28% advantage over the Conservatives in Westminster Voting Intention in London, extending its already yawning lead in London recorded last September.

Altogether, the figures are as follows:

Labour 51%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrat 13%
Green 7%
Reform 5%
Other 0%

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 26%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 7% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 5% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and only 1% of those who voted Labour. 

Significantly, as many as 64% of Londoners who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again, a notably higher figure than found in national polling or in other regional polls. 

Prime Minister Sunak himself holds a net approval rating in London of -8%, up one point from last September. 42% (+2) of Londoners saying they disapprove of his overall job performance since he became Prime Minister, against 34% (+3) who approve.

On his handling of major issues, Sunak holds negative net approval ratings on every policy issue prompted, including on issues such as housing (-22%), immigration (-21%), the NHS (-14%), and the economy (-3%).

Finally, Keir Starmer, the Leader of the Labour Party, holds a net approval rating in London of +19%, down three points since September. 42% (–) of Londoners approve and 23% (+3) disapprove of Starmer’s overall job performance since he became Labour leader.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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