Latest Welsh Westminster & Senedd Voting Intention (16-17 September 2023)

September 20, 2023
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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As one of the four nations that comprise the United Kingdom and with its own devolved Government, Wales holds a unique and important place in British politics. With the next General Election likely to be about a year away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies launched our monthly Welsh tracker poll in April.

Wales has been a political stronghold for the Labour Party, which has won a plurality of the vote in Wales in every General or Senedd Election for the last hundred years (since the 1922 General Election). In the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party did manage to come just 5% behind Labour in Wales, but Labour’s historically strong performance in Wales looks set to continue at the next election.

In our latest Welsh Westminster Voting Intention Poll, we find Labour leading the Conservatives in Wales by 22%, up five points from last month. Altogether, the results (with changes from 13-14 August in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 44% (+3)
Conservatives 22% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
Reform UK 7% (-4)
Green 6% (+2)
Other 1% (+1)

58% of Welsh voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, while more than half of Welsh voters also name the NHS (51%) as one of their top three issues. Other frequently selected issues include immigration (30%), education (28%), the environment (28%), and housing (21%). 

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 44% (+4) of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 33% (+3) who say Rishi Sunak. 23% (-7) say they don’t know.

The next Welsh Senedd Election is not due to be held until May 2026. Nevertheless, when voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads in both our constituency and regional list voting intention polls, although by a narrower margin in our constituency voting intention poll than the party enjoyed last month

Altogether the results of our Senedd Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 13-14 August in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 39% (+2)
Conservative 27% (+6)
Plaid Cymru 18% (-2)
Green 6% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 5% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (-6)
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 1% (NEW)
Other 1% (-3)

The Labour Party also leads when voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot. Labour is on 35% (+4), with the Conservatives in second place on 21% (+2) and Plaid Cymru (18%, -4) in third.

Welsh voters narrowly voted in favour of establishing the devolved Welsh Senedd in 1997, with the Yes side victorious by a margin of just 6,721 votes. Since then, a vocal minority has continued campaigning for abolishing the Senedd, with the single issue Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party winning almost 4% of the regional list vote in the 2021 Senedd Election.

Welsh voters currently remain overwhelmingly in favour of keeping a devolved Welsh Assembly, however. When asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should there be a Welsh Parliament?’ 65% (+5) of Welsh voters answer yes, 22% (-6) no, while a further 13% (+1) don’t know.

More Welsh voters think Mark Drakeford would be a better First Minister for Wales than either Andrew RT Davies (who he leads 44% to 30%) or Rhun ap Iorwerth (who he leads 44% to 23%).

Finally, with a new 20mph speed limit in residential areas having come into effect across Wales this week, our poll (conducted over the weekend that the measure became law) finds 46% of Welsh voters support the new speed limit, against 34% who oppose the change.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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