Latest Welsh Westminster, Senedd & Independence Referendum Voting Intention (23-24 March 2024)

March 27, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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As one of the four nations that comprise the United Kingdom and with its own devolved Government, Wales holds a unique and important place in British politics. With the next General Election less than a year away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies launched in April a monthly Welsh tracker poll.

Wales has been a political stronghold for the Labour Party, which has won a plurality of the vote in Wales in every General or Senedd Election for the last hundred years (since the 1922 General Election). In the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party did manage to come just 5% behind Labour in Wales, but Labour’s historically strong performance in Wales looks set to continue at the next election.

In our latest Welsh Westminster Voting Intention Poll, we find Labour leading the Conservatives in Wales by 33%,  ten points more than in our previous poll published last month, and the largest lead for Labour since we started our Welsh political tracker last April.

At 16%, the Conservatives fall to their lowest share of the vote ever in our Welsh polling

Conversely, with 15% in our poll, Reform UK achieves its highest share of the vote in our Welsh polling

Altogether, the results (with changes from 18 February in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 49% (+4)
Conservatives 16% (-6)
Reform UK 15% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 10% (–)
Liberal Democrat 5% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 30%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 3% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 82% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again.

Only 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the lowest percentage we’ve recorded since we started our Welsh political tracker.

25% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow, while 24% would vote for Reform UK, both of which are record highs in our Welsh Westminster Voting Intention Poll.

64% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (57%). Other frequently selected issues include immigration (33%), the environment (18%), and housing (18%). 

Asked their view on the UK Government, a majority of Welsh voters (58%, -3) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 16% (+2) view the UK Government as competent.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 44% (-3) of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 26% (+2) who say Rishi Sunak. 30% (+1) say they don’t know.

The next Welsh Senedd Election is not due to be held until May 2026. Nevertheless, when voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads in both our Constituency and Regional List Voting Intention polls, having widened its margins in both polls since last month.  

Altogether the results of our Senedd Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 18 February in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 36% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 21% (+2)
Conservative 21% (–)
Reform UK 11% (-2)
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 3% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-1)
Green 3% (–)
Other 1% (+1)

The Labour Party also leads when voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot. Labour is on 32% (+3), with Plaid Cymru (18%, -7) in second, ahead of the Conservatives (16%, –) in third.

Welsh voters narrowly voted in favour of establishing the devolved Welsh Senedd in 1997, with the Yes side victorious by a margin of just 6,721 votes. Since then, a vocal minority has continued campaigning for abolishing the Senedd, with the single issue Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party winning almost 4% of the regional list vote in the 2021 Senedd Election.

While a majority of Welsh voters remain in favour of keeping a devolved Welsh Assembly, the percentage of voters who would now vote to keep the Welsh Assembly is at its joint-lowest level since we started our Welsh tracker in April 2023

When asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should there be a Welsh Parliament?’ 55% (–) of Welsh voters answer yes, 32% (-2) no, while a further 13% (+2) don’t know.

The new First Minister of Wales, Vaughan Gething, takes office with a net approval rating of +4%. Our poll finds 25% of voters approve of his overall job performance as First Minister of Wales against 21% who disapprove, although a majority of 54% either say they neither approve nor disapprove (36%) or don’t know (18%).

Of the government Vaughan Gething now leads, a plurality (35%, -6) say the current Welsh Government is incompetent, compared to 26% (+3) who say it is competent.

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader, Andrew RT Davies, holds a net approval rating of -12% (–), while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, continues to hold a net approval rating of -1% (+4).

Finally, in a hypothetical referendum on Welsh independence, our Welsh independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 28%.

Altogether—with changes from February in parentheses—58% (-3) of Welsh respondents say they would vote ‘no’ and 30% (+3) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question ‘Should Wales be an independent country?’. 11% (-1) don’t know how they would vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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