Latest Welsh Westminster, Senedd & Independence Referendum Voting Intention (22-23 April 2024)

April 24, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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As one of the four nations that comprise the United Kingdom and with its own devolved Government, Wales holds a unique and important place in British politics. With the next General Election less than a year away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies launched in April 2023 a monthly Welsh tracker poll.

Wales has been a political stronghold for the Labour Party, which has won a plurality of the vote in Wales in every General or Senedd Election for the last hundred years (since the 1922 General Election). In the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party did manage to come just 5% behind Labour in Wales, but Labour’s historically strong performance in Wales looks set to continue at the next election.

In our latest Welsh Westminster Voting Intention Poll, we find Labour leading the Conservatives in Wales by 22%, eleven points less than in our previous poll published last month.

At 40%, Labour falls to its lowest share of the vote share in our Welsh polling

Conversely, with 18% in our poll, Reform UK achieves its highest share of the vote in our Welsh polling and is now tied with the Conservatives in second place in Wales. 

With 14%, Plaid Cymru also achieves their highest percentage in our polling.

Altogether, the results (with changes from 23-24 March in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 40% (-9)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Plaid Cymru 14% (+4)
Liberal Democrat 6% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Other 0% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 21%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 6% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 8% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 2% of those who voted Labour. 

57% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (55%). Other frequently selected issues include immigration (34%), housing (23%), and education (20%).

Asked their view on the UK Government, a majority of Welsh voters (63%, +5) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 16% (–) view the UK Government as competent.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 44% (–) of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 24% (-2) who say Rishi Sunak. 32% (+2) say they don’t know.

The next Welsh Senedd Election is not due to be held until May 2026. Nevertheless, when voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads in both our Constituency and Regional List Voting Intention polls by the same margins as last month.

Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, has overtaken the Conservatives to move into second place in our Constituency Voting Intention poll for the first time.  

Altogether the results of our Senedd Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 23-24 March in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 37% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 22% (+1)
Conservative 21% (–)
Reform UK 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 4% (+1)
Green 3% (–) 
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 3% (–)
Other 0% (-1)

The Labour Party also leads when voters are asked who they would vote for on their regional list ballot. Labour is on 33% (+1), with Plaid Cymru (19%, +1) in second, ahead of the Conservatives (18%, +2) in third.

Welsh voters narrowly voted in favour of establishing the devolved Welsh Senedd in 1997, with the Yes side victorious by a margin of just 6,721 votes. Since then, a vocal minority has continued campaigning for abolishing the Senedd, with the single issue Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party winning almost 4% of the regional list vote in the 2021 Senedd Election.

When asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should there be a Welsh Parliament?’ 60% (+5) of Welsh voters answer yes, 30% (-2) no, while a further 10% (-3) don’t know.

The recently elected First Minister of Wales, Vaughan Gething, holds a net approval rating of +10%, up six points from last month. Our poll finds 33% (+8) of voters approve of his overall job performance as First Minister of Wales against 23% (+2) who disapprove.

Of the government Vaughan Gething now leads, a plurality (37%, +2) say the current Welsh Government is incompetent, compared to 29% (+3) who say it is competent.

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader, Andrew RT Davies, holds a net approval rating of -6%, while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, holds a net approval rating this month of +13%.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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