Latest Welsh Westminster, Senedd & Independence Referendum Voting Intention (18-19 May 2024)

May 22, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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As one of the four nations that comprise the United Kingdom and with its own devolved Government, Wales holds a unique and important place in British politics. With the next General Election less than a year away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies launched in April 2023 a monthly Welsh tracker poll.

Wales has been a political stronghold for the Labour Party, which has won a plurality of the vote in Wales in every General or Senedd Election for the last hundred years (since the 1922 General Election). In the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party did manage to come just 5% behind Labour in Wales, but Labour’s historically strong performance in Wales looks set to continue at the next election.

In our latest Welsh Westminster Voting Intention Poll, we find Labour leading the Conservatives in Wales by 24%, two points more than in our previous poll published last month

Altogether, the results (with changes from 22-23 April in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 43% (+3)
Conservatives 19% (+1)
Reform UK 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 14% (–)
Green 6% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-3)
Other 1% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 21%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 9% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 8% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour. 

63% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (55%). Other frequently selected issues include immigration (36%), the environment (17%), and housing (17%). 

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 42% (-2) of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 27% (+3) who say Rishi Sunak. 30% (-2) say they don’t know.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -27%, seven points up from his previous rating in Wales in mid-February. Our poll finds 53% (-5) of Welsh voters disapprove of his overall job performance against 26% (+2) who approve.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Wales stands at -1%, up one point from February. 33% (-3) of Welsh voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 34% (-4) who disapprove.

The Welsh Senedd recently voted to change the electoral system under which the next Senedd election (due in 2026) will be held. Instead of voters being asked to vote on two separate ballots—constituency and regional list—as before, Welsh voters will now be asked to elect 96 members from 16 constituencies using a closed list system

When voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads by 17%.

Altogether the results of our Senedd Voting Intention poll are as follows:

Labour 37%
Plaid Cymru 20%
Conservative 20%
Reform UK 10%
Green 5%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 5%
Liberal Democrat 3%
Other 0%

Welsh voters narrowly voted in favour of establishing the devolved Welsh Senedd in 1997, with the Yes side victorious by a margin of just 6,721 votes. Since then, a vocal minority has continued campaigning for abolishing the Senedd, with the single issue Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party winning almost 4% of the regional list vote in the 2021 Senedd Election.

When asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should there be a Welsh Parliament?’ 60% (–) of Welsh voters answer yes, 31% (+1) no, while a further 9% (-1) don’t know.

The First Minister of Wales, Vaughan Gething, holds a net approval rating of -17%, down 27-points from last month. Our poll finds only 18% (-15) of voters now approve of Gething’s overall job performance as First Minister of Wales, against 35% (+12) who now disapprove.

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader, Andrew RT Davies, holds a net approval rating of -11% (-5), while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, holds a net approval rating this month of -1% (-14).

Finally, in a hypothetical referendum on Welsh independence, our Welsh independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 30%.

Altogether—with changes from March in parentheses—59% (+1) of Welsh respondents say they would vote ‘no’ and 29% (-1) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question ‘Should Wales be an independent country?’ 12% (+1) don’t know how they would vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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