Latest Welsh Westminster and Senedd Voting Intention (5-7 June 2024) 

June 8, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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Wales has been a political stronghold for the Labour Party, which has won a plurality of the vote in Wales in every General or Senedd Election for the last hundred years (since the 1922 General Election). In the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party did manage to come just 5% behind Labour in Wales, but Labour’s historically strong performance in Wales looks set to continue at the next election.

Today, in our first Welsh Westminster Voting Intention Poll since the General Election was called for 4 July, we find Labour leading the Conservatives in Wales by 27%, three points more than in our previous poll published last month

With 18% in our poll, Reform UK achieves its joint-highest share of the vote in our Welsh polling and is now tied with the Conservatives in second place in Wales.

Altogether, the results (with changes from 18-19 May in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 45% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 11% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 5% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
Other 0% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 25%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 8% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 5% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 2% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 79% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again.

By comparison,  only 39% of those who voted for the Conservatives in Wales in 2019 will now vote Conservative again—just two points above the lowest percentage we’ve ever recorded in our Welsh political tracker (37% on 23-24 March this year).

32% of 2019 Conservative voters in Wales now say they will vote for Reform UK—the joint-highest figure we’ve recorded in our Welsh polling—while 16% will vote for Labour, and 3% each say they will vote for the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru.

60% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (52%). Other frequently selected issues include immigration (42%), the environment (18%), and housing (17%). 

Two-thirds (65%) of Welsh voters believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, as against only 15% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 48% (+6) of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 25% (-2) who say Rishi Sunak, equalling Starmer’s largest ever lead over Sunak in our Welsh polling. 27% (-3) say they don’t know.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -26%, up one point from his previous rating in Wales last month. Our poll finds 52% (-1) of Welsh voters disapprove of his overall job performance against 26% (–) who approve. 

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Wales stands at +5%, up six points from our previous poll. 40% (+7) of Welsh voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 35% (+1) who disapprove. 

The Welsh Senedd recently voted to change the electoral system under which the next Senedd election (due in 2026) will be held. Instead of voters being asked to vote on two separate ballots—constituency and regional list—as before, Welsh voters will now be asked to elect 96 members from 16 constituencies using a closed list system

When voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads by 14%, down three points from last month.

Altogether the results of our Senedd Voting Intention poll (with changes from 18-19 May in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 36% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 22% (+2)
Conservative 18% (-2)
Reform UK 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (+3)
Green 6% (+1) 
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 2% (-3)
Other 0% (–)

The First Minister of Wales, Vaughan Gething, holds a net approval rating this month of -23%, down six points from last month. Our poll finds 21% (+3) of voters now approve of Gething’s overall job performance as First Minister of Wales, against 44% (+9) who now disapprove.

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader, Andrew RT Davies, holds a net approval rating of -7% (+4), while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, holds a net approval rating this month of -1% (–).

A major reason for the sharp drop in the First Minister’s approval rating is the continuing controversy over his acceptance of a £200,000 donation to his leadership campaign from a business run by a man twice convicted of illegally dumping waste on a conservation site.

This week, as a consequence of the controversy, the Senedd voted no-confidence in Gething in a non-binding vote, by 29 votes to 27. 

A plurality (48%) of Welsh voters agree with the Senedd’s vote of no confidence in the First Minister, while 17% disagree. 

A majority of Conservative voters at the last Senedd election (71%) agree with the no confidence vote, as do pluralities of Plaid Cymru (42%) and, more worryingly for Vaughan Gething, Labour (45%) voters in 2021.

Following the no confidence vote, Vaughan Gething has faced calls from opposition parties in the Senedd to resign, although he has insisted that he will not resign.

However, a majority (53%) of Welsh voters believe that Gething should now resign.

Even among labour voters at the last Senedd election a plurality (48%) now think Gething should resign, while 37% think he should not. 

While Welsh voters still believe Vaughan Gething would be a better First Minister for Wales than Rhun ap Iorwerth, they now think Andrew RT Davies would be a better First Minister than Gething.

Gething (28%) leads ap Iorwerth (26%) by two points, while he now trails Andrew RT Davies by four points (27% to 31%).

Finally, in a hypothetical referendum on Welsh independence, our Welsh independence referendum voting intention poll finds ‘no’ leading by 24%.Altogether—with changes from March in parentheses—57% (-2) of Welsh respondents say they would vote ‘no’ and 33% (+4) say they would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question ‘Should Wales be an independent country?’. 10% (-2) don’t know how they would vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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