Latest Welsh Westminster and Senedd Voting Intention (19-20 June 2024) 

June 22, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | GB Public Figures | UK Elections | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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As one of the four nations that comprise the United Kingdom and with its own devolved Government, Wales holds a unique and important place in British politics. With the next General Election less than a year away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies launched in April 2023 a monthly Welsh tracker poll.

Wales has been a political stronghold for the Labour Party, which has won a plurality of the vote in Wales in every General or Senedd Election for the last hundred years (since the 1922 General Election). In the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party did manage to come just 5% behind Labour in Wales, but Labour’s historically strong performance in Wales looks set to continue at the next election.

Today, we find Labour leading Reform in Wales by 29%, two points more than in our previous poll on 5-7 June.

With 15% in our poll, the Conservatives achieve their lowest vote share in our polling in Wales to date. Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is now 31%, four points more than in our previous poll.

Altogether, the results (with changes from 5-7 June in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 46% (+1)
Reform UK 17% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 7% (+2)
Green 4% (–)
Other 1% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 25%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 8% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 7% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 2% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 79% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. By comparison, only 38% of those who voted for the Conservatives in Wales in 2019 will now vote Conservative again—just one point above the lowest percentage we’ve ever recorded in our Welsh political tracker (37% on 23-24 March this year).

62% of Welsh voters cite the NHS as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (57%). Other frequently selected issues include immigration (38%) and housing (21%).

Two-thirds (66%) of Welsh voters believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, as against only 14% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government.

A similar number (65%) think Keir Starmer will be Prime Minister after the election.

When asked who would be a better Prime Minister, 50% (+2) of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 20% (-5) who say Rishi Sunak, marking a new largest ever lead for Starmer over Sunak in our Welsh polling.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -31%, down five points from his previous rating in Wales. Our poll finds 54% (+2) of Welsh voters disapprove of his overall job performance against 23% (-3) who approve.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Wales stands at +5%, the same as our previous poll. 35% (-5) of Welsh voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 30% (-5) who disapprove.

First Minister of Wales Vaughan Gething holds a net approval rating this month of -25%, down two points from our previous poll. Our poll finds 17% (-4) of voters now approve of Gething’s overall job performance as First Minister of Wales, against 42% (-2) who now disapprove.

Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader, Andrew RT Davies, holds a net approval rating of -12% (-5), while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, holds a net approval rating this month of +1% (+2).

Vaughan Gething trails both Rhun ap Iorwerth and Andrew T.C Davies for who would be a better First Minister for Wales. Gething (25%) trails ap Iorwerth (28%) by three points, while he now trails Andrew RT Davies by one point (26% to 27%).

Altogether, 38% of Welsh voters find the Welsh Government to be incompetent, compared to 23% who find the Welsh Government to be competent.

The Welsh Government receives positive net approval ratings for its performances on the coronavirus pandemic, the environment, and cultural issues. On all other issues, particularly the NHS (-32%) the Welsh Government receives a negative net approval rating.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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