Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll of 1,500 eligible voters in the United States finds Joseph Biden with a 9% lead over Donald Trump. This lead was 1% greater than our previous voting intention poll last month. Our final results, which includes a turnout weighting (from respondents’ stated likelihood to vote), were as follows:

Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 49% (–)
Donald J. Trump (Republican) 40% (–)
Other (Third Party / Write-In) 2% (-2%)
Don’t Know 9% (+3%)

However, taking a broader look at our entire sample, we see little has changed in the past month. When including those who say they are certain not to vote and those who say they do not know how they will vote in November, Biden’s support, in fact, drops a percentage point due to the higher number of ‘don’t knows’:

Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 42% (-1%)
Donald J. Trump (Trump) 36% (–)
Other (Third Party / Write-In) 3% (-1%)
Don’t Know 10% (+2%)
Won’t Vote 9% (–)

Such small differences fall well within the margin of error of a 1,500 sample poll, such that we cannot draw any major conclusions from our two results.

One area we did see somewhat of a difference is in the stated likelihood to vote of our respondents. Before asking for whom they will vote, we ask respondents to our polls how likely they are to vote based on a carefully defined scale and apply their responses as a turnout weighting to their stated voting intention. This month, we saw an overall 4% increase in those who say they are certain to vote (i.e. a 5 out of 5). For those who say they will vote for Biden, we saw a 7% increase. For those who say they will vote for Trump, there was a more modest 2% increase.

Again, however, it is early days in the 2020 Presidential Race. Less than a month ago, Bernie Sanders was still in the race (even as many already considered his chances then to be extremely low). Campaigning has now all but stopped due to the coronavirus crisis, although both candidates seek to engage with the public in creative ways: former President Obama posted a widely viewed endorsement of the presumptive Democratic nominee while President Donald Trump hosts daily press briefings on the coronavirus crisis. Let us also not forget that Hillary Clinton’s leads over Donald Trump at this point in 2016 were also similarly high.

Much can and will change.