Conducted on May 8th and 9th, Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national voting intention poll of 1,500 registered voters in the United States finds Joseph Biden leading by 7%. This lead was 2% smaller than our previous voting intention poll in April and is the same as our poll in March. Altogether, our final numbers are as follows:
Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 47% (-2)
Donald J. Trump (Republican) 40% (–)
Other (Third Party / Write-In) 4% (+2)
Don’t know 9% (–)
This time, we also introduced a different voting scenario. We asked respondents to our poll both our usual likelihood to vote question and how likely they would be to vote in an election conducted exclusively by mail-in ballots.
Surprisingly, more respondents were likely to vote in an exclusively mail-in election. 60 respondents (or about 4%) said they would certainly not vote in either scenario. An additional 56 respondents (or about 4%) said they would certainly not vote under the normal scenario, while only an additional 30 respondents (or about 2%) said they were certain not to vote under the mail-in ballot scenario.
Under the mail-in only election scenario, with a slightly increased turnout, Joe Biden’s lead increases to 10%.
Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 53%
Donald J. Trump (Republican) 43%
Other (Third Party / Write-In) 4%
These results have incredible implications for how the 2020 election may be affected by the coronavirus crisis. Absentee or mail-in voting has been a very controversial issue in the United States, with some arguing that many such votes get lost in the system or that voter fraud is easier to commit through absentee ballots while others make the argument that voters are disenfranchised when only those who can vote in person on the day of an election are allowed to vote.
However, with the threat of the coronavirus pandemic, public officials face an extremely tough decision before them. In the future, we will ask respondents whether or not they would support an exclusive mail-in only election in their state to gauge what the voters themselves would prefer.