Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (8-11 June 2024)

June 17, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Arizona | Democratic Party | Donald Trump | Elections | Florida | Georgia | Joe Biden | Michigan | North Carolina | Pennsylvannia | Republican Party | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Ron DeSantis | Swing States | US Elections | US Politics | US Presidential Election 2024 | US Public Figures | Voting Intention | Wisconsin

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In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just a little over eight months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State polling, which tracks voter sentiment in six of the key swing states that may decide the Presidential Election. So far, this polling has included Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

In the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.

Today, in our sixth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,713 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in all six states which we polled, although his margins have narrowed in three of the six states polled since our previous poll conducted in early May.

In a hypothetical match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Donald Trump holds a lead of six points over Biden in Florida (43% vs 37%) while holding leads of between 1% and 5% in the other five states polled.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who claims between 5% and 8% of the vote in the six states polled, claims the support of more Biden (6%-8%) than Trump (4%-5%) voters at the last election in five of the six states.

In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of Biden 2020 voters to Trump, or Trump 2020 voters to Biden, could make the key difference. As it stands, more Biden 2020 voters now say they will vote for Trump than Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Biden in both Arizona (8% to 3%) and Florida (7% to 3%), while more Trump 2020 voters say they would now vote for Biden in North Carolina (4%) than vice versa (3%).

In terms of the key issues voters say will determine how they vote in 2024, the economy is the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in all six states. Abortion is the second most commonly cited issue in every state, while healthcare and immigration are each the third most important electoral issue for voters in three states.

When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote next November, between 68% and 74% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it, by far, the most common choice. 

Other issues which a high percentage of voters rate as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote include the cost of healthcare (56%-61%), election integrity (50%-55%), and abortion (44%-52%).

President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all six states polled

His approval rating has improved in both Florida (-6%, +1) and Georgia (-2%, +5) since last month, while it has fallen by one point over the same period in Pennsylvania (-8%, -1).

Although the Biden Administration earns negative net approval ratings from voters in four of the six states for its handling of the economy, voters in Florida (+5%) now approve of the President’s performance on the economy, while voters in Georgia (0%) are neutral. 

Voters in all six states, however, continue to disapprove of the President’s performance on immigration, while the President earns positive net approval ratings in all six states for its handling of healthcare.

50% or more of voters in Arizona (52%), Michigan (50%), North Carolina (50%), and Pennsylvania (50%) say their financial situation has worsened in the past year, with only between 18% (in Michigan) and 29% (in Florida) saying their finances have improved. 

Pluralities of respondents in three of the six states polled—Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—now say they are anxious in their ability to make ends meet and cover the costs of living, with voters only in Florida (47%) and Georgia (42%) more likely to say they are confident than anxious (31% and 36%, respectively) about doing so.

As for the future, swing state voters are more optimistic. 

Pluralities of voters in five of the six states polled now expect their financial situation to improve in the next year, while between 23% and 28% think their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.

On immigration, which continues to be a major problem area for the Biden Administration, pluralities of voters in all six states disapprove of Joe Biden’s job performance.

As regards the situation at the border, majorities in five of the six states polled—and a plurality in Florida—continue to say they do not believe the United States currently has control over its border

More voters in all six states trust Donald Trump more than Joe Biden on six of the nine issues listed, including the economy, inflation, immigration, defense, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Israel-Palestine.

Joe Biden is more trusted than Donald Trump by voters in all six states on abortion, while also being more trusted by voters in five of the six states on healthcare.

Voters in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania trust Joe Biden more than Donald Trump on the rule of law, while voters in Arizona, Florida, and Michigan trust Trump more than Biden on the same issue.

Finally, if Trump and Biden were to be the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states believe Trump would be the more likely of the two to win the election

Between 37% and 44% of voters believe Donald Trump would be the more likely winner, while only between 30% and 33% believe Biden would be the most likely winner.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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