In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now less than two months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 8,524 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in five out of the ten potential swing states, with Pennsylvania tied.
In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris leads Trump by between one point and seven points in five of the states, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania (45% each). Trump leads Harris in Arizona by one point (47% to 46%), in Florida by six points (50% to 44%), in Georgia by two points (49% to 47%), and in Nevada by one point (46% to 45%).
Since our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has taken a one point lead in North Carolina (45% to 44%), and continues to lead in both Michigan (48% to 45%), and Wisconsin (49% to 46%). However, Harris has lost her one point advantage in Pennsylvania to now be tied with Donald Trump at 45% each.
For Donald Trump, his margins over Harris are unchanged in both Arizona (1%) and Georgia (2%), while he has widened his advantage in Florida to six points and taken a narrow one-point lead in Nevada. At the same time, he has lost his advantage over the current Vice-President in North Carolina and now trails Harris by one point in the Tar Heel state.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Minnesota (233,012), Nevada (33,596), New Mexico (99,720), Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida (371,686) and North Carolina (74,483).
As few as 3% of likely voters in Georgia, Minnesota, and Wisconsin remain undecided how they will vote in the Presidential Election, while as many as 8% of voters in North Carolina also remain unsure how they will vote.
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. The number of 2020 Biden voters who say they will now vote for Trump is at least double the number of 2020 Trump voters who say they will vote for Harris in states like Arizona (13% to 5%), Pennsylvania (9% to 4%), New Mexico (12% to 6%), and Nevada (12% to 6%).
Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 93% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 80% and 90% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.
The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state, respectively, apart from in Georgia where healthcare is the third most commonly cited issue.
When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 66% and 77% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in nine of the ten states (55% to 60%).
Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (49% to 60%), abortion (46% to 54%), taxation (50% to 54%), illegal immigration (45% to 54%), and defense (41% to 52%) to be ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.
In addition to the Presidential race, voters in nine of ten states we polled (with Georgia the exception) will also be voting in November in a Senate or, in the case of North Carolina, a Gubernatorial election.
In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by six points (48%, +6 to 42%, +5). Gallego’s lead is up one point from our previous swing state voting intention poll. Gallego polls two points higher than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by five points.
In Florida’s Senate election, Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent and former Governor, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic challenger, by three points (44%, +1 to 41%, +1), a margin that is unchanged from our previous poll. Scott polls six points behind Trump in the state, whilst Mucarsel-Powell polls three points lower than Harris does in Florida.
In Michigan’s Senate election, Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate, leads Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, by five points (44%, +2 to 39%, +4). Slotkin is polling four points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Rogers lags behind Trump by six points.
In Minnesota, the incumbent Democratic Senator, Amy Klobuchar, leads her Republican challenger, Royce White by six points (42%, +1 to 36%, +2). Klobuchar polls nine points lower than Harris does in the state whilst White is currently polling eight points lower than Trump in Minnesota. Significantly, 16% of voters are undecided in the Senate race compared to only 3% in the Presidential election.
In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democratic Senator, leads Sam Brown, her Republican challenger, by eight points (47%, +4 to 39%, –). Rosen’s vote share is two points higher than Harris’ in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Brown polls seven points lower than Trump does in the State.
In New Mexico’s Senate election, Democrat Martin Heinrich leads the Republican candidate, Nella Domenici, by ten points (47%, +4 to 37%, +4). Heinrich polls two points below Harris in the state, whereas Domenici polls seven points below Trump.
In Pennsylvania’s Senate election, the incumbent Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., leads the Republican, David McCormick, by eight points (44%, – to 36%, -2). Bob Casey Jr.’s lead has widened by two points since our previous poll. Harris currently outperforms Casey Jr. by one point in the Keystone State, whereas McCormick polls nine points worse than Donald Trump.
The incumbent Democratic Senator, Tammy Baldwin, leads her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde in the state of Wisconsin by seven points (46%, – to 39%, -2). Baldwin’s lead has widened by two points since our previous poll. Baldwin polls three points lower than Harris does in the state, whereas Hovde polls seven points lower than Trump does in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by nine points (42%, -2 to 33%, -7). Stein’s lead over Robinson has widened by five points since we last polled this race. Stein polls three points lower than Harris does in North Carolina, while Robinson polls eleven points worse than Trump does in the state.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in eight of the ten states polled, with his ratings falling in six of the ten states polled since our previous swing states poll. His approval rating is highest in Georgia (+1%), while it is lowest in Pennsylvania (-17%).
By contrast, Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in nine of the ten states polled. Her net approval rating is highest in Arizona and New Mexico (both +8%) while it is lowest in Pennsylvania (-1%). Harris has also seen her net approval rating improve in six of the ten states polled since our last swing states poll.
Former President Donald Trump holds a net positive favorability rating in five of the ten swing states polled and a negative rating in the other five. His net favorability rating is highest in Georgia (+9%) and is at its lowest in Minnesota and Pennsylvania (both -9%). Trump’s ratings have improved in five states from our previous poll, and fallen in the other five.
Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance holds a net negative favorability rating in nine of the ten swing states, with Georgia (+2%) being the only state in which his favorability rating is a net positive. Vance’s ratings have, however, marginally improved in five of the ten states we surveyed.
It is worth noting that as many as between 26% (Nevada) and 48% (North Carolina) either say they don’t know or say they have neither a favorable nor an unfavorable view of Vance.
Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz holds a net positive favorability rating in nine of the ten swing states polled, in addition to a neutral rating (0%) in Pennsylvania. He achieves his highest rating of +15% in his home state of Minnesota, in addition to Georgia and Wisconsin. However, his net approval ratings have fallen in four states (Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Pennsylvania) since our previous swing states poll.
Between 14% (Minnesota) and 42% (North Carolina) either say they don’t know or say they have neither a favorable nor an unfavorable view of Walz.
More voters in all ten states trust Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
Voters in eight of the ten swing states trust Harris more than Trump on policing/crime, with voters in only Florida and Pennsylvania giving Donald Trump a lead on the issue.
Whereas in previous swing states polls Donald Trump was often more trusted by voters in every state than either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris on the economy, now voters in only four of the ten states (Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) trust Trump more than Harris on the issue.
As was evident in our previous poll, Trump has also lost his overwhelming advantage on inflation, with voters in only five of the ten swing states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) now trusting him more than Harris on the issue.
At the same time, voters in every state except for New Mexico trust Trump more than Harris on immigration, while voters in eight of the ten states trust Trump more than Harris on defense.
Voters in five of the ten states trust Trump more than Harris on the war in Israel-Palestine, while voters are split down the middle when it comes to who they trust more on the war in Ukraine, with voters in four states each trusting either Trump or Harris and those in the remaining two evenly split.
At the same time, more voters in all ten states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of the economy, inflation, healthcare, abortion, election integrity, and the environment.
More voters in nine of the ten states lean towards the Democratic positions on the rule of law and policing/crime.
More voters in six of the ten states also lean towards the Democratic positions on defense, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Israel-Palestine.
Finally, voters in eight of the ten states are more likely to lean towards the Republican position on immigration.
