In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just three months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.

This week’s iteration includes New Mexico, adding to our previous set of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Today, in our tenth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 8,229 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in five out of the ten potential swing states, with a further two being tied.

In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Trump leads Harris by between one point and six points in five of the states, while Trump and Harris are tied in Nevada (40% each) and Wisconsin (43% each). Harris leads Trump in Minnesota by five points (46% to 41%), in New Mexico by seven points (44% to 37%), and in Arizona by one point (44% to 43%).

In the states where he maintains a lead, Trump’s margins have narrowed in Florida (6%, -2), Georgia (2%, -3), Michigan (1%, -2), and Pennsylvania (2%, -2) since our last swing state voting intention poll. Trump retains a three point lead in North Carolina, while Wisconsin remains a tie. In the same time frame, Nevada has gone from Trump having a lead of two points to being tied, and Arizona has flipped from being Trump +3 to Harris +1. Furthermore, Harris’ lead in Minnesota has expanded from three points to five.

For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida and North Carolina.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls between 3% and 8% in the swing states, performing best in New Mexico and worst in Georgia, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Once again, his vote share has decreased, falling in four of the nine states since our previous swing state voting intention poll and staying the same in the remaining five. RFK Jr. is polling higher than 5% only in New Mexico, a state not conventionally seen as a potential swing state.

Unlike in previous polls we’ve done, Kennedy no longer appears to consistently take more from the Democratic ticket than the Republican ticket. A higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters than 2020 Biden voters in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in 2024, whilst more 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters in Florida, Georgia, and Nevada plan to vote for him. Kennedy takes the exact same percentage from both tickets in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issue in each state, respectively.

When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 62% and 74% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it, by far, the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in every state (53%-61%), except in Pennsylvania where election integrity is the issue second most commonly described as ‘extremely’ important (55%).

Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (49%-59%), abortion (47%-55%), taxation (42%-55%), illegal immigration (42%-54%) and policing/crime (43%-53%) as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.

In addition to the Presidential race, we asked voters in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, where state primaries have concluded, their voting intention for their respective Senate or Gubernatorial elections.

In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by six points (42% to 36%). Gallego polls two points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by seven points.

In Nevada’s Senate election, Jacky Rosen, the Democratic candidate, leads Sam Brown, the Republican candidate, 41% to 38%. Rosen’s lead has decreased by two points since our previous poll. Rosen’s vote share is one point higher than Harris’ in our Presidential voting intention poll, whereas Brown polls two points lower than Trump does in the State.

In New Mexico’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Martin Heinrich leads the Republican candidate, Nella Domenici, by six points (40% to 34%). Heinrich polls four points below Harris in the state, whereas Domenici polls three points below Trump.

In Pennsylvania’s Senate election, the incumbent Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., leads the Republican, David McCormick, by five points (45% to 40%). Bob Casey Jr.’s lead has decreased by two points since our previous swing state voting intention poll. Casey Jr. outperforms Harris by one point, whereas McCormick polls six points worse than Donald Trump in the State.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by five points (43% to 38%). Stein’s lead has increased by one point over Robinson since we last polled this gubernatorial race, although both candidates have seen their vote shares increase overall.

President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all swing states polled, including in New Mexico (-5%).

Vice President Harris’ net approval rating is better than Biden’s in every swing state polled.

Harris has a net positive approval rating in Arizona (+1%), Georgia (+1%), Michigan (+3%), Minnesota (+8%), North Carolina (+3%), and Wisconsin (+5%). She holds a net negative approval rating in Florida (-2%), New Mexico (-1%), and Pennsylvania (-1%).

Donald Trump has a net positive favorability rating in four of the ten swing states: Arizona (+2%), Florida (+6%), Georgia (+6%), and North Carolina (+1). By contrast, he holds a net negative favorability rating in the remaining states: Michigan (-4%), Minnesota (-10%), Nevada (-3%), New Mexico (-7%), Pennsylvania (-3%), and Wisconsin (-7%).

Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance holds a net negative favorability rating in seven of the ten swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). He has a neutral favorability rating in Florida and a net positive approval rating in Georgia (+5%) and North Carolina (+2%). Vance held a positive favorability rating in five of the nine states that we polled in our last swing state voting intention poll.

A significant minority of swing state voters (19% to 25%) have ‘neither a favorable nor an unfavorable’ view of Vance at present, while a further 9% to 17% do not know what their view of him is.

When it comes to their personal finances, pluralities of between 44% and 49% in seven of the ten states, and a majority of voters in Arizona (51%), New Mexico (55%), and Nevada (51%) say their financial situation has worsened in the past year.

Nevertheless, a plurality of respondents (39% to 45%) in eight of the ten states polled say that they are confident of making ends meet and covering the costs of living. In Michigan, an equal percentage of voters (35%) say they are anxious to make ends meet as say they are confident, and in New Mexico, a plurality (46%) say they are anxious in their ability to make ends meet and cover the costs of living.

As for the future, swing state voters are somewhat more optimistic.

Pluralities of voters in nine of the ten states (30% to 40%) now expect their financial situation to improve in the next year. In Minnesota, voters are most likely to think that their financial situation will stay the same in the next year (36%). Between 20% and 25% in all states think that their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.

Illegal immigration continues to be a major problem area for the current administration. A majority of between 53% and 61% in all ten states polled say that they do not believe that the United States currently has control over its borders.

More voters in all ten states trust Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely the economy, inflation, immigration, policing and crime, and defense.

Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump by voters in all ten states on healthcare, abortion, election integrity, and the environment.

Voters in eight of the ten states trust Trump more on the war in Ukraine. The same percentage of voters (38%) trust Harris as Trump in Minnesota. In New Mexico, a plurality of voters (37%) trust Harris more on the issue.

Similarly, voters trust Trump more on the war in Israel-Palestine in all states polled apart from New Mexico, where a plurality of 34% trust Harris more on the issue.

Voters in seven of the ten states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) trust Harris more on the rule of law, whilst voters in Georgia and North Carolina trust Trump more on this issue. The same percentage of voters in Florida (38%) trust Trump and Harris respectively more than the other on the issue.

At the same time, more voters in all ten states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of the economy, healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment. 

More voters in seven of the ten states also lean towards the Democratic position on the war in Ukraine, alongside voters in six of the ten states that lean towards the Democratic stance on inflation and policing and crime.

More voters lean towards the Republican position on immigration in every state apart from Nevada and New Mexico. Additionally, the Republican position on the issue of defense is more popular in seven of the ten swing states, and the Republican position on the war in Israel-Palestine is more popular in six of the ten swing states.