In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just a little under eleven months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our new ‘Swing State’ poll, which tracks voter sentiment in six of the key swing states that may decide the Presidential Election. Our latest iteration of this polling, conducted at the end of December, includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
In the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.
Today, in the third edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 6,029 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in all six states polled, although his margins in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are all slightly narrower than they were in our previous poll conducted in late November.
As was also the case in previous polling, our latest poll suggests Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy may do more to help Donald Trump than Joe Biden.
More Biden 2020 than Trump 2020 voters say they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he was a candidate in all six states polled. In fact, three times as many Biden 2020 as Trump 2020 voters would vote for RFK Jr. in Florida (13% vs 4%) while in Georgia, more than six times as many (13% vs 2%) say they would do so.
The economy is the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in all six states. Abortion is the second most commonly cited issue in five of the six states polled, and immigration is the second most important electoral issue for voters in Arizona.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all six states polled. His highest approval rating comes in Michigan (-4%), while his lowest is in Pennsylvania (-16%).
The Biden Administrations earns negative net approval ratings from voters in all six states for its handling of the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.
On the economy, net disapproval of the Administration’s performance ranges from as low as -8% (in both Georgia and Michigan) to as high as -17% in Pennsylvania.
Despite impressive economic growth figures and an unemployment rate of only 3.7%, voters’ continue to give the Administration poor ratings for its economic performance, with the rosy picture of the overall state of the economy conflicting with their own personal circumstances.
Majorities of voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (as well as pluralities in Georgia and North Carolina) say their financial situation has worsened in the past year. In addition, pluralities of voters in Arizona (41%), Michigan (40%), North Carolina (39%), and Pennsylvania (39%) say they are anxious about their ability to make ends meet and cover the costs of living.
On immigration, majorities of voters in Arizona (58%) and Pennsylvania (53%) disapprove of the Government’s performance, as do pluralities of voters in the other four states polled. Majorities in all six states polled say they do not believe the United States currently has control over its border.
In addition, pluralities of voters in all six states trust Donald Trump more than Joe Biden on five of the eight issues prompted, including the economy, inflation, immigration, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Israel-Palestine.
More voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania trust Donald Trump than Joe Biden on the rule of law, while Biden holds a seven-point lead in Michigan on that issue (38% vs 31%).
Biden is more trusted than Trump by voters in all six states on healthcare and abortion.
If Trump and Biden were to be the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states believe Trump would be the more likely of the two to win the election. Only around a third of voters in these states believe Biden would be more likely to win.
Ultimately, with the primary season now almost upon us, any outcome other than a rematch of the 2020 contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden would be a surprise at this point.