In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just four weeks away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 18,875 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris ahead in five out of nine potential swing states. Donald Trump leads in three states, while the candidates are tied in Georgia.
Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris now leads Trump by a single point in three states which were previously tied: Nevada (48% to 47%), Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), and Wisconsin (47% to 46%). Trump leads in Arizona (48% to 47%), Florida (49% to 45%), and North Carolina (47% to 45%), but has lost his lead in Georgia, where both candidates are tied on 47%. Meanwhile, Harris extends her leads in Michigan (48% to 46%) and Minnesota (51% to 43%).
In every state polled except Florida (Trump +4%) and Minnesota (Harris +8%), the candidates are either tied or the lead for Trump or Harris is within the margin of error.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Minnesota (233,012), Nevada (33,596), Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida (371,686) and North Carolina (74,483).
As few as 2% of likely voters in Arizona remain undecided how they will vote in the Presidential Election, while as many as 5% of voters in North Carolina and Wisconsin also remain unsure how they will vote.
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 19% of Biden 2020 voters in the nine states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 6% and 12% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.
Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in eight out of the nine states polled, with Minnesota the only exception. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 78% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.
The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state.
When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 60% and 74% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in all nine states (52% to 60%).
Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (49% to 58%), illegal immigration (45% to 54%), taxation (47% to 58%), abortion (48% to 53%), and policing/crime (41% to 52%), to be ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.
In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by six points (48%, +2 to 42%, +1). Gallego’s lead is up one point from our previous swing state voting intention poll. Gallego polls a one point higher share of the vote in our Senate poll as Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by six points.
In Florida’s Senate election, Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent and former Governor, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic challenger, by three points (44%, -1 to 41%, –), a margin that is one point narrower than in our previous poll. Scott polls five points behind Trump in the state, whilst Mucarsel-Powell polls four points lower than Harris does in Florida. 10% of likely voters in Florida remain undecided as to how they will vote.
In Michigan’s Senate election, Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate, leads Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, by six points (45%, -1 to 39%, +2). Slotkin’s lead is three points narrower than in our previous poll, while she also polls three points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention Poll. In comparison, Republican challenger Mike Rogers lags Trump’s Presidential polling by seven points. 10% of voters in Michigan are undecided.
In Minnesota, the incumbent Democratic Senator, Amy Klobuchar, leads her Republican challenger, Royce White by eight points (46%, +4 to 38%, +4). Both Klobuchar and White poll five points less than the Presidential candidates of their respective parties—a consequence of there being almost three times as many undecided Minnesotans in the Senate election (11%) as they are in the Presidential election (4%).
In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democratic Senator, leads Sam Brown, her Republican challenger, by seven points (48%, +1 to 41%, +3). Rosen’s vote share is equal to Harris’ in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Brown polls six points lower than Trump does in the State.
Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, leads her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde in the state of Wisconsin by five points (47%, +1 to 42%, +1). Baldwin polls equally to Harris in the state, whereas Hovde polls four points lower than Trump.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by ten points (46%, +4 to 36%, +3). Stein’s lead over Robinson has widened by one point since we last polled this race a month ago. Stein polls one point higher than Harris does in North Carolina, while Robinson polls eleven points worse than Trump does in the Tar Heel State.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in six of the nine states polled, though his ratings have improved in five of the nine states polled since our previous swing states poll. His approval rating is highest in Georgia (+7%), while it is lowest in North Carolina (-6%).
By contrast, Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in all nine states polled. Her net approval rating is highest in Michigan (+14%) while it is lowest in Florida (+2%). Harris has also seen her net approval rating improve in six of the nine states polled since our last swing states poll.
Former President Donald Trump holds a negative net favorability rating in six of the nine swing states polled, and a positive rating in three states. His net favorability rating is highest in Florida (+8%) and is at its lowest in Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada (all -3%). Trump’s ratings have worsened in five states from our previous poll and improved in another four.
Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance also holds a net negative favorability rating in six of the nine swing states. His net favorability rating is highest in Georgia and North Carolina (both +4%) and lowest in Michigan (-11%). His ratings have worsened in four states, improved in two, and remained stable in three.
Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz holds a net positive favorability rating in all nine swing states polled. He achieves his highest rating of +15% in his home state of Minnesota, and his net favorability rating is in the positive double digits in another six states. However, his net approval ratings have fallen marginally in Michigan (+13%, -3) and in North Carolina, where he records his lowest net favorability (+5%, -5).
More voters in all nine states trust Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
Voters in eight of the nine swing states trust Harris more than Trump on policing/crime, with voters in only Florida giving Donald Trump a lead on the issue.
On the economy, voters are evenly split. Respondents in Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin now trust Trump more than Harris on the economy, while those in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania trust Harris more than Trump. Voters in Arizona (44% each) are evenly split.
Continuing a trend that was evident in our previous poll, Harris is continuing to narrow Donald Trump’s long standing advantage on inflation, with voters in only three of the nine swing states (Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina) now trusting Trump more than Harris on the issue. Voters in six states (Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) now trust Harris more than Trump on inflation.
At the same time, voters in eight of the nine states polled trust Trump more than Harris on immigration (with Michigan the one exception), while voters in six of the nine states trust Trump more than Harris on defense.
Voters in five of the nine states trust Trump more than Harris on the war in Israel-Palestine, while voters in four of the nine states trust Harris more than Trump on the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, more voters in all nine states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of the economy, inflation, healthcare, abortion, election integrity, the rule of law, and the environment.
More voters in eight of the nine states lean towards the Democratic positions on the War in Ukraine, while voters in seven of the nine states polled lean more towards the Democratic position on policing/crime.
More voters in six states lean more towards the Democratic than the Republican position on the war in Israel-Palestine, while more voters in five states lean more towards the Democratic position on defense.
Finally, voters in five of the nine states also lean towards the Republican position on immigration, while voters in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin lean more towards the Democratic than the Republican position.
