With the next US Presidential Election now just a little over a year away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched in October our new ‘Swing State’ poll, which will track voter sentiment in six of the key swing states that may decide the Presidential Election. Our latest iteration of this polling, conducted at the end of November, covers Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
In the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.
Today, in our second edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 6,184 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in all six states, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate.
As was also the case in early October, our latest poll suggests Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy may do more to help Donald Trump than Joe Biden.
More Biden 2020 than Trump 2020 voters say they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he was a candidate in all six states polled. In fact, more than twice as many Biden 2020 as Trump 2020 voters would vote for RFK Jr. in North Carolina (11% vs 5%) and Michigan (11% vs 4%).
Donald Trump remains the clear favourite to be the Republican nominee in next year’s Presidential Election. In line with that political landscape, our poll finds both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley would perform worse in a General Election matchup against Biden than would Trump.
In a hypothetical matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Biden leads in four of the six states polled (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), while DeSantis leads in Florida (38% vs 34%) and North Carolina (38% vs 34%).
Against Nikki Haley, Biden leads in five states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), while Haley only leads in North Carolina.
In terms of the key issues voters say will determine how they vote in 2024, the economy is the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in all six states, and abortion is the second most commonly cited issue in all six states.
Immigration is the third most important issue for voters in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, while healthcare is the third most commonly cited issue by voters in Georgia and Michigan.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all six states polled. His highest approval ratings come in Georgia and Michigan (both -6%), while his lowest is in North Carolina (-15%).
The Biden Administrations earns negative net approval ratings from voters in all six states for its handling of the economy, immigration, the environment, and foreign policy.
On the economy, net approval of the Administration’s performances ranges from as high as -10% in Georgia and Michigan to as low as -15% in Arizona and North Carolina.
Voters’ negative impressions of the Administration’s economic performance—despite impressive economic growth figures and low unemployment—appear to be rooted in their own personal experience: Majorities of voters in five of the six states polled (and 50% in North Carolina) say their financial situation has worsened in the past year. In addition, pluralities of voters in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (all 43%) say they are anxious about their ability to make ends meet and cover the costs of living.
A majority of voters in North Carolina (56%)—as well as 50% of voters in Florida and Pennsylvania—disapprove of the Government’s performance on immigration, as do pluralities of voters in the other three states polled. Between 57% and 66% of voters in the six states polled believe the United States does not currently have control over its borders.
The Administration also earns negative net approval ratings in five of the six states on healthcare, while holding a neutral (0%) net approval rating on the issue in Michigan.
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in all six states on 12 of the 15 leadership characteristics listed, including ‘is a strong leader,’ ‘will be tough on China,’ ‘can get the economy going again,’ and ‘understands the problems afflicting America.’
Critically, Trump leads on the question of who ‘represents change’ in all six states, a key difference from 2020.
Biden leads Trump in all six states on the leadership characteristic ‘is willing to work with the other party where possible.’ Biden also leads Trump in five of six states on ‘cares about people like me’ and ‘tells the truth.’
If Trump and Biden were to be the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states believe Trump would be the more likely of the two to win the election.
Voters remain concerned about the ages of both Joe Biden (81) and Donald Trump (77).
About two-thirds of voters in all six states agree that President Biden is too old to seek a second term as President, including pluralities of those who voted for him in 2020. In addition, pluralities of voters in every state except Georgia also agree that Donald Trump is too old to seek a second term as President of the United States.
Ultimately, majorities of voters in all of these key swing states do not believe that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump should run in 2024.
Between 59% and 65% of voters in each of these states believe Joe Biden should not run for re-election in 2024, while fewer than 30% of voters in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania believe that he should.
Majorities of voters in all six states polled also believe that Donald Trump should not run for re-election in 2024, with fewer than 45% saying he should run for re-election in all six states polled.
That said, in all six states, majorities (or sometimes pluralities in the case of Biden) of those who voted for either candidate in 2020 think their respective candidate should run again, explaining why we are on course for a rematch of the 2020 election at this present moment.