In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now a little over two months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, in our tenth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 7,939 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in five out of the ten potential swing states, with Nevada being tied.
In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris leads Trump by between one point and nine points in five of the states, while Harris and Trump are tied in Nevada (47% each). Trump leads Harris in Arizona by one point (46% to 45%), in Florida by five points (48% to 43%), in Georgia by two points (44% to 42%), and in North Carolina by one point (45% to 44%).
Since our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has taken a three point lead in Michigan (having trailed Trump by 1% there previously), and expanded her leads in both Minnesota (9%, +2) and New Mexico (7%, +1). Harris retains her four point lead in Wisconsin, while her advantage in Pennsylvania has slightly narrowed to 1% (-1).
For Donald Trump, his margins over Harris are unchanged in both Arizona (1%) and Florida (5%), while he has taken a two point lead in Georgia (having previously been tied there). At the same time, his advantage over the current Vice-President in North Carolina has narrowed by two points to just 1%, while he has lost his lead in Nevada to now be tied there.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida and North Carolina.
This is our first swing state voting intention poll since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and subsequently endorsed Donald Trump for President. In his absence, third party and ‘Other’ candidates collectively poll between 1% and 3%.
The number of undecided voters ranges widely, with as few as 4% of voters in Nevada, and as many as 12% of voters in Georgia, saying that they ‘don’t know’ for whom they will vote for in November.
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, more 2020 Trump voters are switching to Harris than 2020 Biden voters are switching to Trump. By contrast, in Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, more 2020 Biden voters are switching to Trump than 2020 Trump voters are switching to Harris. A greater number of 2020 Biden voters are currently undecided than 2020 Trump voters in every state except Minnesota where the numbers are tied.
The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state, respectively, apart from in Georgia and Minnesota, where healthcare is tied with immigration as the third most commonly cited issue.
When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 63% and 77% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in nine of the ten states (55% to 60%). In Arizona, the same percentage of voters describe the cost of healthcare and election integrity as ‘extremely important’ (57%).
Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (52% to 60%), taxation (48% to 55%), illegal immigration (42% to 54%), abortion (48% to 53%), and policing/crime (44% to 52%) as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.
In addition to the Presidential race, voters in nine of the ten states we polled (with Georgia the exception) will also be voting in November in a Senate or, in the case of North Carolina, a Gubernatorial election.
In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by five points (42%, -2 to 37%, -2). Gallego’s lead is unchanged from our previous swing state voting intention poll, but both candidates’ vote shares have declined by two points. Gallego polls three points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by nine points.
In Florida’s Senate election, Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent and former Governor, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democrat challenger, 43% to 40%. Scott is polling five points behind Trump in the state, whilst Mucarsel-Powell polls three points lower than Harris does in Florida.
In Michigan’s Senate election, Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate, leads Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, 42% to 35%. Slotkin is polling five points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Rogers lags behind Trump by nine points.
In Minnesota, the incumbent Democratic Senator, Amy Klobuchar, leads her Republican challenger, Royce White by seven points (41% to 34%). Klobuchar polls ten points lower than Harris does in the state whilst White is currently polling eight points lower than Trump in Minnesota. Significantly, 18% of voters are undecided in the Senate race compared to only 5% in the Presidential election.
In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democratic Senator, leads Sam Brown, her Republican challenger, by four points (43%, +2 to 39%, +2). Rosen’s lead is unchanged from our previous poll. Rosen’s vote share is four points lower than Harris’ in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Brown polls eight points lower than Trump does in the State.
In New Mexico’s Senate election, Democrat Martin Heinrich leads the Republican candidate, Nella Domenici, by ten points (43%, +1 to 33%, -3). Heinrich has increased his lead over Domenici by four points since our previous poll in mid-August. Heinrich polls four points below Harris in the state, whereas Domenici polls seven points below Trump.
In Pennsylvania’s Senate election, the incumbent Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., leads the Republican, David McCormick, by six points (44%, – to 38%, +2). Bob Casey Jr.’s lead has narrowed by two points since our previous poll. Harris currently outperforms Casey Jr. by two points in the Keystone State, whereas McCormick polls seven points worse than Donald Trump.
The incumbent Democratic Senator, Tammy Baldwin, leads her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde in the state of Wisconsin by five points (46% to 41%). Baldwin polls two points lower than Harris does in the state, whereas Hovde polls three points lower than Trump does in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by four points (44%, -1 to 40%, +1). Stein’s lead over Robinson has narrowed by two points since we last polled this race two weeks ago. Whilst Stein polls at the same percentage of the vote as Harris does in North Carolina, Robinson polls five points worse than Trump does in the state.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in nine of the ten states polled, although his ratings have improved in six of the ten states polled since our previous swing states poll. His approval rating is highest in Georgia (+2%), while it is lowest in Florida (-6%).
By contrast, Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in nine of the ten states polled, in addition to a neutral (0%) rating in Florida. Her net approval rating is highest in Georgia (+11%). Harris has also seen her net approval rating improve in six of the ten states polled since our last swing states poll.
Former President Donald Trump holds a net positive favorability rating in three of the ten swing states polled: Florida (+8%), Georgia (+6%), and Nevada (+1%). By contrast, he holds a net negative favorability rating in the remaining states: Arizona (-1%), Michigan (-1%), Minnesota (-3%), New Mexico (-6%), North Carolina (-3%), Pennsylvania (-5%), and Wisconsin (-4%).
Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance holds a net negative favorability rating in seven of the ten swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). He has positive favorability ratings in Florida (+3%), Georgia (+5%), and North Carolina (+2%).
Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz holds a net positive favorability rating in all ten swing states polled. His highest rating is in his home state of Minnesota (+19%), whilst his lowest is in Florida (+7%). His net approval ratings have improved in six of the states and stayed the same in a further two since our previous swing state poll.
More voters in all ten states trust Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
Whereas in our previous swing states poll Donald Trump was trusted more than Harris on the economy in all ten swing states, now voters in only six of the ten states trust Trump more on the issue. Pluralities of voters in the remaining four swing states (Georgia, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Nevada) now trust Harris more on the issue.
Similarly, Trump has lost his overwhelming advantage on inflation, with voters in only four of the ten swing states (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) now trusting him more on the issue. Wisconsin is tied between the two candidates (44% each), whilst more voters in the remaining five states trust Harris more on inflation.
At the same time, voters in every state except for New Mexico trust Trump more than Harris on immigration and defense.
Voters in eight of the ten swing states trust Harris more on policing/crime. The same percentage of voters (43%) trust Trump more as trust Harris more in Pennsylvania. In Florida, a plurality of voters (46%) trust Trump more on the issue.
Voters in seven of the ten states trust Trump more than Harris on the war in Israel-Palestine, while voters in five states trust Harris more than Trump on the war in Ukraine, compared to pluralities in four other states which trust Trump more than Harris on the issue.
At the same time, more voters in all ten states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of the economy, healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
More voters in eight of the ten states also lean towards the Democratic positions on the war in Ukraine and inflation.
In seven of the ten states, more voters lean towards the Democrat stance on policing/crime and the war in Israel-Palestine.
Finally, voters in six of the ten states are more likely to lean towards the Republican position on the issues of immigration and defense.
