In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now less than 50 days away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.

This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 9,794 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in four out of the nine potential swing states, while Trump leads in three states and Harris is ahead in two. 

In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris and Trump are now tied in Arizona (47% each), Nevada (45% each), Pennsylvania (47% each), and Wisconsin (47% each). Harris leads Trump by one point in Michigan (46% to 45%) and by six points in Minnesota (50% to 44%), while Trump leads Harris in Florida by five points (50% to 45%), in Georgia by two points (48% to 46%), and in North Carolina by one point (48% to 47%).

Since our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has lost her narrow leads in both Wisconsin and North Carolina, while Trump has lost his advantages in Arizona and Nevada. 

In every state polled except Florida (Trump +5%) and Minnesota (Harris +6%), the candidates are either tied or the lead for Trump or Harris is within the margin of error.

For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Minnesota (233,012), Nevada (33,596), Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida (371,686) and North Carolina (74,483).

As few as 2% of likely voters in Georgia are undecided how they will vote in the Presidential Election, while as many as 8% of voters in Nevada also remain unsure how they will vote. 

In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference. 

In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 13% of Biden 2020 voters in the nine states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 4% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.

Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled. Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.

The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state.

When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 67% and 77% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently cited issue as being ‘extremely’ important in all nine states (55% to 64%).

Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (53% to 59%), taxation (48% to 57%), illegal immigration (46% to 55%), abortion (49% to 55%), and policing/crime (46% to 54%), to be ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.

In addition to the Presidential race, voters in seven of the nine states we polled (with Georgia and North Carolina the exceptions) will also be voting in November to elect a United States Senator.

In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by five points (46%, -2 to 41%, -1). Gallego’s lead is down one point from our previous swing state voting intention poll. Gallego polls one point lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by six points.

In Florida’s Senate election, Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent and former Governor, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic challenger, by four points (45%, +1 to 41%, –), a margin that is one point greater than in our previous poll. Scott polls five points behind Trump in the state, whilst Mucarsel-Powell polls four points lower than Harris does in Florida. 11% of likely voters in Florida remain undecided as to how they will vote.

In Michigan’s Senate election, Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate, leads Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, by nine points (46%, +2 to 37%, -2). Slotkin is polling the same percentage of the vote as Kamala Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Rogers lags behind Trump by eight points. 12% are undecided.

In Minnesota, the incumbent Democratic Senator, Amy Klobuchar, leads her Republican challenger, Royce White by eight points (42%, – to 34%, -2). Klobuchar polls eight points lower than Harris does in the state whilst White is currently polling ten points lower than Trump in Minnesota. Significantly, 17% of voters are undecided in the Senate race compared to only 3% in the Presidential election.

In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democratic Senator, leads Sam Brown, her Republican challenger, by nine points (47%, – to 38%, -1). Rosen’s vote share is two points higher than Harris’ in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Brown polls seven points lower than Trump does in the State.

In Pennsylvania’s Senate election, the incumbent Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., leads the Republican, David McCormick, by six points (47%, +3 to 41%, +5). Bob Casey Jr.’s lead has narrowed by two points since our previous poll. Casey Jr. is currently polling the same share of the vote as Kamala Harris in the Keystone State, whereas McCormick polls six points worse than Donald Trump.

The incumbent Democratic Senator, Tammy Baldwin, leads her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde in the state of Wisconsin by five points (46%, – to 41%, +2). Baldwin’s lead has narrowed by two points since our previous poll. Baldwin polls one point lower than Harris does in the state, whereas Hovde polls six points lower than Trump does in Wisconsin.

President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in five of the nine states polled, with his ratings falling in four of the nine states polled since our previous swing states poll. His approval rating is highest in Georgia (+4%), while it is lowest in Arizona and Wisconsin (both -5%).

By contrast, Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in all nine states polled. Her net approval rating is highest in Michigan (+10%) while it is lowest in North Carolina (+2%). Harris has also seen her net approval rating improve in five of the nine states polled since our last swing states poll.

Former President Donald Trump holds a negative net favorability rating in four of the nine swing states polled, a neutral rating in two states, and a positive rating in three states. His net favorability rating is highest in Georgia (+8%) and is at its lowest in Minnesota (-9%). Trump’s ratings have worsened in four states from our previous poll, and improved in another four.

Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance holds a net negative favorability rating in seven of the nine swing states, with Florida (+5%) and Georgia (+2%) being the only states in which his favorability rating is a net positive. 

It is worth noting that between 24% and 31% of voters in the states polled say they either don’t know or have neither a favorable nor an unfavorable view of Vance.

Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz holds a net positive favorability rating in all nine swing states polled. He achieves his highest rating of +16% in Michigan, while in another six states his net favorability rating is in the positive double digits. However, his net approval ratings have fallen marginally in four states (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin) since our previous swing states poll. 

Between 13% (Minnesota) and 34% (Michigan and North Carolina) either say they don’t know or say they have neither a favorable nor an unfavorable view of Walz.

More voters in all nine states trust Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.

Voters in six of the nine swing states trust Harris more than Trump on policing/crime, with voters in only Florida and Wisconsin giving Donald Trump a lead on the issue.

On the economy, voters are evenly split. Respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada now trust Harris more than Trump on the economy, while those in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin trust Trump more than Harris. Voters in Pennsylvania (45% each) are evenly split. 

Continuing a trend that was evident in our previous poll, Harris is continuing to narrow Donald Trump’s long standing advantage on inflation, with voters in only three of the nine swing states (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) now trusting Trump more than Harris on the issue, compared to five states in our previous poll. Voters in six states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Nevada) now trust Harris more than Trump on inflation. 

At the same time, voters in all nine states polled trust Trump more than Harris on immigration, while voters in eight of the ten states trust Trump more than Harris on defense.

Voters in five of the nine states trust Trump more than Harris on the war in Israel-Palestine, while voters are split when it comes to who they trust more on the war in Ukraine, with voters in four states trusting Trump more than Harris, while voters in three states trust Harris more than Trump.

At the same time, more voters in all nine states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of the economy, healthcare, abortion, election integrity, the rule of law, and the environment.

More voters in eight of the nine states lean towards the Democratic positions on inflation, the War in Ukraine, and policing/crime, with only voters in Florida more likely to say they lean towards the Republican than the Democratic position on the last two issues.

More voters in seven of the nine states polled lean more towards the Democratic than the Republican position on defense and the war in Israel-Palestine. 

Finally, voters in six of the nine states also lean towards the Democratic position on immigration, with Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina being the only states in which more respondents lean towards the Republican than the Democratic position.