In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just two weeks away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 8,553 swing state voters finds Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris in five out of eight swing states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The candidates are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin.
Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Donald Trump has widened his leads in Arizona (+3%, +1) and North Carolina (+3%, +1), while he has taken narrow leads in both Georgia (+1%, +1) and Nevada (+1%, +1). At the same time, his lead in Florida has narrowed by two points. Kamala Harris retains her one-point advantage in Wisconsin. Both Michigan and Pennsylvania remain tied.
In every state polled except Florida (Trump +4%) the candidates are either tied or the lead for either Trump or Harris is within the margin of error.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Nevada (33,596), Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida (371,686) and North Carolina (74,483).
Donald Trump leads among men in seven of the eight states polled, with the former President enjoying advantages of between one point (49% to 48% in Pennsylvania) and fourteen points (in Florida and Nevada) among this cohort. The only exception is Georgia, where Trump and Harris both have the support of 47% of men.
By contrast, Vice-President Harris leads Donald Trump leads among women in five of the eight states polled. Harris’ leads among women voters range from as narrow as two points in Pennsylvania (49% to 47%) to as wide as 13 points in Nevada (53% to 40%). At the same time, Donald Trump leads by two points among women in Arizona (49% to 47%), Georgia (48% to 46%), and North Carolina (also 48% to 46%).
Between 2% and 4% of likely voters in the states polled remain undecided how they will vote in the Presidential Election.
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 10% and 16% of Biden 2020 voters in the eight states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 6% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.
Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in all eight states polled. Between 84% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 81% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.
The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state polled except for Georgia, where healthcare is the third most commonly cited issue, ahead of immigration.
When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 65% and 73% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in all eight states (55% to 60%).
Around half of all voters in each state consider taxation (44% to 57%), election integrity (46% to 55%), illegal immigration (50% to 55%), and abortion (49%-54%) to be ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.
In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by seven points (48%, +1 to 41%, -1). Gallego’s lead is up two points from our previous swing state voting intention poll.
Lake trails Gallego, even though Donald Trump leads in the state in our Presidential Voting Intention poll by three points, in part because more than one-fifth (22%) of likely Trump voters say they will vote for Gallego in the senate race. 76% of likely Harris voters say they will vote for Gallego, while only 67% of likely Trump voters say they will vote for Lake.
In Florida’s Senate election, Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent and former Governor, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic challenger, by three points (45%, – to 42%, –), a margin that is unchanged from both our previous polls of this race. Scott polls four points behind Trump in the state, whilst Mucarsel-Powell polls three points lower than Harris does in Florida.
In Michigan’s Senate election, Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate, leads Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, by seven points (45%, +1 to 38%, -2). Slotkin’s lead is three points wider than in our previous poll, although she polls two points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention Poll. In comparison, Republican challenger Mike Rogers lags Trump’s Presidential polling by nine points.
In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democratic Senator, leads Sam Brown, her Republican challenger, by seven points (48%, +2 to 41%, –). Rosen’s vote share is two points higher than Harris’ in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Brown polls six points lower than Trump does in the State.
Notably, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, leads her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde in the state of Wisconsin by only one point (45%, -2 to 44%, +2), matching Kamala Harris’ narrow margin in the Badger State. Crucially, 8% of likely voters in Wisconsin remain undecided as to how they will vote in the Senate Election.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by eight points (45%, – to 37%, -1), despite Donald Trump’s three-point lead in our Presidential Voting Intention poll of the state. Stein polls the same vote share as Harris does in North Carolina, while Robinson polls 11 points worse than Trump does in the Tar Heel State.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in five of the eight states polled. His approval rating is highest in Wisconsin (+6%), while it is lowest in North Carolina (-6%).
By contrast, Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in all eight states polled. Her net approval rating is highest in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (all +5%) while it is lowest in Arizona and Michigan (both +1%). However, Harris has seen her net approval rating fall in seven of the eight states polled since our last swing states poll.
Former President Donald Trump holds a positive net favorability rating in five of the eight swing states polled. His net favorability rating is highest in Florida (+7%) and is at its lowest in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (both -2%). His rating has improved in four states since our previous poll and fallen in the other four.
Republican Vice-Presidential nominee J. D. Vance holds a positive net favorability rating in four of the eight swing states, and a negative rating in another four. His net favorability rating is highest in Florida and Georgia (both +8%) and is lowest in Wisconsin (-4%).
Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz holds a net positive favorability rating in all eight swing states polled. He achieves his highest rating of +16% in Georgia, while also enjoying a net positive favorability in double digits in four other states.
When it comes to their personal finances, between 42% and 50% in all eight states say their financial situation has worsened in the past year. In every poll since we started our swing states tracker last October, around twice as many voters in every state polled have said their financial situation has worsened than improved in the past year.
Between 26% and 33% say their financial situation has stayed the same, while between one-fifth and one-third (19%-29%) say their situation has improved. In the eight states polled, between 29% and 39% say they are anxious in their ability to make ends meet.
As for the future, pluralities of voters in all eight states (31% to 43%) now expect their financial situation to improve in the next year. Voters in Georgia (43%) are the most likely to say they believe their financial situation will improve next year. Between 23% and 30% think their situation will stay the same, while between one-fifth and one-quarter (20% to 24%) think their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.
More voters in all eight states trust Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
Voters in seven of the ten swing states trust Harris more than Trump on both policing/crime, while voters in North Carolina are evenly split.
At the same time, voters in all eight states polled trust Trump more than Harris on immigration.
On the economy, voters in seven of the eight states polled now trust Trump more than Harris, while voters in Nevada (44% each) are evenly split.
On inflation, voters in five of the eight swing states (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) trust Trump more than Harris on the issue. Voters in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada are evenly split.
Voters in five of the eight states also trust Trump more than Harris on Defense and the war in Israel-Palestine.
Finally, on the war in Ukraine, voters are split. Those in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania trust Trump more than Harris, while voters in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin trust Harris more than Trump. 40% of Georgians trust each of Trump and Harris most on the war in Ukraine.
