In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just three-and-a-half months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State polling.

Previously, this polling had included Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. This week, Nevada and Wisconsin have been added to our tracker.

In the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.

Today, in our eighth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 5,005 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in seven out of the eight swing states, with the candidates tied in Wisconsin.

In a hypothetical match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Trump now leads Biden by between one and seven points in seven of the states, while Biden and Trump are tied in Wisconsin (42%). In Nevada, the second of the two new swing states added to our tracker, Trump leads Biden by three points (44% vs 41%).

Trump’s margins have widened in Florida and North Carolina since our previous poll last week, while they have narrowed in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Trump’s four point lead over Biden in Arizona is unchanged since last week. In the same timeframe, Michigan has flipped from a narrow Biden lead of one point to an equally narrow Trump lead of one point.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls between 4% and 7% in the swing states, performing best in Arizona and Nevada and worst in Pennsylvania. He generally takes more votes from Biden’s 2020 voters than Trump’s 2020 voters, although a higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters (8%) than 2020 Biden voters (5%) in Nevada plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Biden could make the key difference. In four of the eight swing states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania), more 2020 Biden voters are switching to Trump than 2020 Trump voters are switching to Biden. In North Carolina (6%) and Georgia (5%), an equal number of 2020 Biden and 2020 Trump voters now intend to vote for the other candidate in their 2024 rematch. In Michigan and Wisconsin, more 2020 Trump voters now intend to switch to Biden than vice versa.

In terms of the key issues voters say will determine how they vote in 2024, once again the economy is the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state, including in the new states added to our tracker. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issue in each state, respectively.

When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote next November, between 67% and 71% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it, by far, the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in every state (52%-61%).

Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (49%-53%), illegal immigration (45%-52%), abortion (47%-52%), taxation (47%-52%), and policing/crime (45%-52%) as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.

President Biden retains a negative net approval rating among voters in all six states polled.

In addition to the Presidential race, we asked voters in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where State primaries have concluded, their Voting Intention for their respective Senate elections.

In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the Democratic candidate, leads Sam Brown, the Republican candidate, 41% to 37%. Rosen polls the same 41% as Biden does in the state in our presidential voting intention poll, whereas Brown lags behind Trump by seven points.

In Pennsylvania, the incumbent Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., leads the Republican David McCormick by seven points (44% to 37%). Casey Jr. outperforms Biden by three points, whereas McCormick polls eight points worse than Donald Trump in the state.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by one point (37% to 36%). A further 23% of voters are undecided how they will vote.

President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all swing states polled, except in Georgia where the same percentage of voters (42%) approve and disapprove of his overall job performance. Biden has an approval rating of -3% in both of the new swing states added to our tracker, Nevada and Wisconsin.

His approval rating has deteriorated in Michigan (-7%, -3), North Carolina (-10%, -5) and Pennsylvania (-7%, -4), but has improved in Arizona (-6%, +4), Florida (-6%, +2), and Georgia (+0%, +6) during the same period.

In recent weeks, there has been increasing talk of Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. 

Vice President Harris’ approval rating is generally better than Biden in our swing states tracker, though she still has a net negative approval rating in six of the eight states polled. In Arizona, the same number of voters (40%) approve of her as disapprove of her. In Nevada, she holds a net approval rating of +1%.

Harris has a better approval rating than Biden in Arizona (+0% to -6%), Florida (-5% to -6%), Nevada (+1% to -3%), North Carolina (-9% to -10%), and Wisconsin (-1% to -3%). She has a worse approval rating in Georgia (-2% to 0%) and Michigan (-9% to -7%), while Harris and Biden both have an approval rating of -7% in Pennsylvania.

This week, the Republican National Convention formally nominated Donald Trump as their candidate for president.

Trump has a positive favorability rating in four of the eight swing states: Florida (+6%), Georgia (+3%), North Carolina (+7%), and Pennsylvania (+2%). He has a neutral favorability rating in Michigan, with the same percentage of voters (42%) holding a favorable view of him as holding an unfavorable view. In Arizona (-1%), Nevada (-5%), and Wisconsin (-1%), Trump holds a negative net favorability rating with voters.

This week, Donald Trump unveiled J. D. Vance as his running mate at the Republican National Convention.

Vance holds a positive favorability rating in all eight swing states, ranging from as low as +1% in Arizona to as high as +13% in Pennsylvania. 

However, a significant portion of Americans have either no opinion or a neutral opinion on Vance, who was first elected to the US Senate only two years ago, in 2022. Around a quarter (between 23% and 27%) of swing state voters say they have ‘neither a favorable nor an unfavorable’ view of Vance, while between 19% and 26% do not know what their view is of him.

Majorities in Arizona (53%), Michigan (50%), Nevada (51%), Pennsylvania (50%), and Wisconsin (50%) say their financial situation has worsened in the past year, with pluralities saying the same in Florida (45%), Georgia (46%) and North Carolina (49%).

Pluralities of respondents in two of the eight states polled—Arizona (38%) and Michigan (38%)—say they are now anxious in their ability to make ends meet and cover the costs of living, while, conversely, pluralities of voters in Florida (42%), Georgia (44%), Nevada (40%), North Carolina (39%), and Pennsylvania (40%) say they are confident in their ability to do so.

As for the future, swing state voters are more optimistic than when we asked this question last week.

Pluralities of voters in Arizona (32%), Florida (38%), Georgia (37%), Nevada (34%), and North Carolina (35%) now expect their financial situation to improve in the next year. 

In Michigan, the most common response is to expect that one’s financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months (31%), while a plurality of voters in Pennsylvania (31%) and Wisconsin (32%) expect that their financial situation will stay the same in the next year. Between 21% and 31% now think their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.

Illegal immigration continues to be a major problem area for the Biden Administration. A majority (55% to 58%) in all eight states polled say that they do not believe that the United States currently has control over its border.

More voters in all eight states trust Donald Trump more than Joe Biden on six of the eleven issues prompted, namely the economy, inflation, immigration, defense, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Israel-Palestine.

Joe Biden is more trusted than Donald Trump by voters in all eight states on healthcare, abortion and the environment.

More voters in five of the eight states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin) trust Joe Biden more on the rule of law, whilst more voters in North Carolina and Nevada trust Trump more on the issue. Equal percentages of voters in Pennsylvania (38% each) trust Trump and Biden more than the other on the rule of law.

In seven of the eight states, a plurality of voters trust Joe Biden more on election integrity. Only in North Carolina do a narrow plurality (39%) trust Donald Trump more on the issue.

At the same time, more voters in all eight states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity and the environment. Only on the issue of defense do more voters in all eight states lean towards the Republican position.

In every state except for Arizona more voters lean towards the Democratic position on the economy. In Arizona, a narrow plurality of 45% lean more towards the Republican position. 

Voters in six of the eight states polled are more likely to lean towards the Democratic position on the issue of the war in Ukraine. In North Carolina, voters are more likely to lean towards the Republican position on this issue, whereas voters in Florida are as likely to lean towards the Republican position as they would the Democratic position.

In every state except for Wisconsin, voters lean towards the Republican position on immigration.

More voters in Georgia and Wisconsin lean more towards the Democratic position on inflation whereas more voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina lean towards the Republican voters. Equal numbers of voters in Nevada and Pennsylvania lean towards both parties.

More voters lean towards the Democratic position in Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin on the war in Israel-Palestine, whereas more voters lean towards the Republican position on the issue in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The same percentage of voters (40%) lean towards the Republican position as the Democratic position on the issue in Arizona.

It is interesting to note that, much as Trump outperforms Republican candidates in down-ballot races we polled in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, Trump also outperforms his party when it comes to many of these issues, with voters in all eight states polled saying they trust Trump more than Biden on issues like the economy, inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Israel-Palestine despite generally leaning closer to the Democratic position on those issues.

If Trump and Biden were to be the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in seven states and a majority of voters in Arizona believe Trump would be the more likely of the two to win the election.

Between 43% and 50% of voters believe Donald Trump would be the more likely winner, while only between 26% and 32% believe that Biden would be more likely to win.

This latest result represents a marked increase from late December in the number of swing state voters who think Trump would be the most likely winner. Back then, between 39% and 44% of swing state voters thought Trump would be the most likely winner, while around one-third (30%-34%) thought Biden would be the most likely winner.

Majorities of voters in all eight states (57% to 61%) agree that Joe Biden is too old to seek a second term as President of the United States.

Intriguingly, the percentage of swing state voters who think Joe Biden is now too old to seek a second term has actually fallen since last November, at which point between 64% and 68% (depending on the state) thought Biden was too old to seek a second term.

Meanwhile, between 35% and 41% of voters in all six states also agree that Trump is too old to seek a second term, although pluralities of voters in Florida (41%), Michigan (39%), North Carolina (41%), Pennsylvania (40%), and Wisconsin (39%) disagree that Trump is too old to seek a second term.

Finally, majorities of voters in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in addition to large pluralities in Florida (48%), Georgia (47%) and Nevada (47%), think that Joe Biden should not run for re-election in 2024.

However, the percentage of swing state voters who think Biden should not run again has actually fallen since we began our swing states tracker last October. Back then, majorities of voters in all six swing states we polled (55%-62%) thought Biden should not run for re-election.