Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (14-17 March 2024)

March 25, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Arizona | Democratic Party | Donald Trump | Elections | Florida | Georgia | Joe Biden | Michigan | North Carolina | Pennsylvannia | Republican Party | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Ron DeSantis | Swing States | US Elections | US Politics | US Presidential Election 2024 | US Public Figures | Voting Intention | Wisconsin

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In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just a little over eight months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State polling, which tracks voter sentiment in six of the key swing states that may decide the Presidential Election. So far, this polling has included Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

In the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.

Today, in our fourth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 5,010 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in all six states which we polled, although his margins in Arizona, Florida, and Georgia are all narrower than they were in our previous poll conducted in late December.

In a hypothetical match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Donald Trump holds a lead of seven points over Biden in Florida (46% vs 39%) while enjoying leads in the low single digits in the other five states polled.

As has been the case consistently in our swing state tracker, our latest poll suggests Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy may do more to help Donald Trump than Joe Biden, although his vote share has fallen in five of the six states polled compared with last December.

More Biden 2020 than Trump 2020 voters say they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he was a candidate in five of the six states polled. In Arizona, more than three times as many Biden 2020 as Trump 2020 voters would vote for RFK Jr. (11% vs 3%), while in Georgia (7% vs 3%) and Pennsylvania (9% vs 4%) more than twice as many say they would do so.

In terms of the key issues voters say will determine how they vote in 2024, the economy is the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in all six states. Immigration is the second or joint-second most commonly cited issue in four of the six states polled, while abortion is the second or joint-second most important electoral issue for voters in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina.

When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote next November, between 65% and 72% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it, by far, the most common choice. 

Other issues which a high percentage of voters rate as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote include the cost of healthcare (47%-61%), illegal immigration (51%-58%), and election integrity (50%-55%).

President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in all six states polled, although his approval rating has improved in five of the six states polled since last December. 

Voters in Georgia give the President his highest net approval rating (-2%), while his lowest net rating comes in Arizona (-11%).

The Biden Administrations earns negative net approval ratings from voters in all six states for its handling of immigration and foreign policy and from voters in five states (with Georgia the exception) for its handling of the economy. 

On the economy, the Administration’s ratings have improved in all six states from last month, with net disapproval of the Administration’s performance now ranging from as low as -9% (in Arizona) to as high as +1% in Georgia.

In an improvement in voter sentiment since December, pluralities of respondents in five of the six states polled now say they are confident in their ability to make ends meet and cover the costs of living, with only voters in Michigan more likely to say they are anxious (42%) than confident (37%) about doing so.

However, a plurality of voters in all six states say their financial situation has worsened in the past year, with only between 19% (in Arizona) and 29% (in Florida and Georgia) saying their finances have improved. 

As for the future, pluralities of voters in Florida (38%), Georgia (40%), and North Carolina (35%) expect their financial situation to improve in the next year, while a third of voters in Arizona (32%) and Pennsylvania (31%) think their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.

On immigration, which continues to be a major problem area for the Biden Administration, majorities of voters in Arizona (54%), Pennsylvania (54%), and Michigan (52%) disapprove of Joe Biden’s job performance, as do pluralities of voters in the other three states polled.

With the most recent bipartisan attempt at legislating a solution to the border crisis failing to receive sufficient support in Congress, majorities in all six states polled continue to say they do not believe the United States currently has control over its border

More voters in all six states trust Donald Trump than Joe Biden on six of the nine issues listed, including the economy, inflation, immigration, defense, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Israel-Palestine.

More voters in Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania trust Donald Trump than Joe Biden on the rule of law, while Biden holds one-point leads in both Arizona (40% to 39%) and Michigan (35% to 34%) on that issue.

Biden is more trusted than Trump by voters in all six states on abortion and by voters in five of the six states on healthcare.

Finally, if Trump and Biden were to be the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states believe Trump would be the more likely of the two to win the election

Between 40% and 46% of voters believe Donald Trump would be the more likely winner, while only between 33% and 38% believe Biden would be the most likely winner.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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