In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now under three months away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 7,598 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in five out of the ten potential swing states. Kamala Harris leads Trump in four states, while the two candidates are tied in Georgia (46% each).
In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Trump’s margins have marginally narrowed in Florida (5%, -1) and Georgia (0%, -2), and have stayed the same in Michigan (1%) and North Carolina (3%) since our last swing state voting intention poll.
In the same time frame, Nevada has gone from being tied to Trump having a one point lead, and Arizona has flipped from Harris +1 to Trump +1.
Harris’ leads have widened in Minnesota (7%, +2) and Wisconsin (2%, +2), which was tied last week, while Pennsylvania has flipped from Trump leading by two points to Harris leading by two points.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida and North Carolina.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls between 2% and 6% in the swing states, performing best in New Mexico and Nevada, and worst in Georgia and North Carolina. Compared to last week, his vote share has fallen in seven of the ten states polled since, while holding stable in a further two. Kennedy is up by one point in Pennsylvania since last week’s polling.
Kennedy no longer seems to consistently take more from the Democratic ticket than the Republican ticket. A higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters than 2020 Biden voters in Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in 2024, whilst more 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters in Florida and Pennsylvania now plan on doing so. Kennedy now takes the exact same percentage of support from Biden 2020 and Trump 2020 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Mexico.
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In nine of the ten states, more 2020 Biden voters intend to vote for Donald Trump than 2020 Trump voters intend to vote for Kamala Harris. In Arizona, an equal number of 2020 Biden voters and 2020 Trump voters (4%) now intend to vote for the other party’s candidate in the 2024 election.
The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issue in each state, respectively.
When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 63% and 75% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it, by far, the most important issue.
The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in seven of the ten states (52% to 60%). In Pennsylvania, election integrity is the issue second most commonly described as ‘extremely’ important (53%), and in Arizona (55%) and Nevada (54%), the same percentage of voters describe the cost of healthcare and election integrity as ‘extremely important.’
Around half of all voters in each state consider election integrity (49% to 57%), illegal immigration (44% to 54%), taxation (47% to 53%), abortion (45% to 52%), and policing/crime (42% to 50%) as ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.
In addition to the Presidential race, we asked voters in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, where state primaries have concluded, their voting intention for their respective Senate or Gubernatorial elections.
In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by five points (44% to 39%). Gallego’s lead has decreased by one point since our previous swing state voting intention poll. Gallego polls a point higher than Harris does in our Presidential voting intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by five points.
In Nevada’s Senate election, Jacky Rosen, the Democratic candidate, leads Sam Brown, the Republican candidate, 41% to 37%. Rosen’s lead has increased by one point since our previous poll. Rosen’s vote share is one point lower than Harris’ in our Presidential voting intention poll, whereas Brown polls six points lower than Trump does in the Silver State.
In New Mexico’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Martin Heinrich leads the Republican candidate, Nella Domenici by six points (42% to 36%). Heinrich’s lead is unchanged from our previous Swing States poll, although both candidates see their share of the vote increase by two points from last week. Heinrich polls five points below Harris in the state, whereas Domenici polls five points below Trump.
In Pennsylvania’s Senate election, the incumbent Democrat, Bob Casey Jr., leads the Republican, David McCormick, by eight points (44% to 36%). Bob Casey Jr.’s lead has increased by three points since our previous swing state voting intention poll, although he underperforms Harris by two points in the state. At the same time, McCormick polls eight points worse than Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by six points (45% to 39%). Stein’s lead has increased by one point over Robinson since we last polled this gubernatorial race, although both candidates see their vote shares increase overall.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in eight of the ten states polled, although his ratings have improved in five of the ten states polled since last week. His approval rating is highest in Michigan (+1%) and Wisconsin (+1%), while it is lowest in Nevada (-12%).
Vice President Harris’ net approval rating is better than Biden’s in every swing state polled.
Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in seven of the ten states polled, including in Arizona (+1%), Georgia (+7%), Michigan (+6%), Minnesota (+7%), North Carolina (+3%), New Mexico (+11%), and Wisconsin (+4%), whilst in Florida (-5%), Nevada (-2%), and Pennsylvania (-1%), she holds net negative approval ratings.
Donald Trump has a net positive favorability rating in four of the ten swing states: Florida (+5%), Georgia (+4%), North Carolina (+5%) and Nevada (+1%). By contrast, he holds a net negative favorability rating in all six of the remaining states: Arizona (-4%), Michigan (-2%), Minnesota (-11%), New Mexico (-2%), Pennsylvania (-1%), and Wisconsin (-8%).
Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance holds a net negative favorability rating in seven of the ten swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), although his ratings have improved in seven of the ten states polled. He has positive favorability ratings in Florida (+1%), Georgia (+3%), and North Carolina (+3%).
Since our last swing state voting intention polling, Kamala Harris has announced Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota, as her Vice-Presidential running mate.
Walz holds a positive favorability rating in all ten swing states polled. His highest rating is in his home state of Minnesota (+15%), whilst his lowest is in North Carolina (+4%).
However, a significant proportion of voters have either no opinion or a neutral opinion of Walz. Around a quarter of voters (22% to 28%) in every state apart from Minnesota have neither a favourable nor an unfavourable view of Walz, whilst between 14% and 20% in these nine states do not know how to view him.
When it comes to their personal finances, pluralities of between 43% and 49% in six of the ten states, and a majority of voters in Arizona (51%), North Carolina (50%), Nevada (54%) and Wisconsin (50%) say their financial situation has worsened in the past year.
In Florida (40%), Georgia (48%), North Carolina (39%), Minnesota (43%), and Pennsylvania (40%), a plurality of voters say that they are confident of making ends meet and covering the costs of living. In Michigan (37%) and Wisconsin (39%), an equal percentage of voters say they are anxious to make ends meet as say they are confident, whilst in Arizona (42%), New Mexico (44%), and Nevada (44%), pluralities of voters say they are anxious in their ability to make ends meet and cover the cost of living.
As for the future, swing state voters are somewhat more optimistic.
Pluralities of voters in seven of the ten states (31% to 43%) now expect their financial situation to improve in the next year. In Minnesota (36%) and Pennsylvania (30%), voters are most likely to think that their financial situation will stay the same in the next year, whilst in Arizona, an equal percentage of voters (30%) think that their financial situation will improve as think it will stay the same. Between 21% and 27% in all states think that their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.
Illegal immigration continues to be a major problem area for the current administration. A majority of between 51% and 61% in all ten states polled say that they do not believe that the United States currently has control over its borders.
More voters in all ten states trust Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris on the economy, inflation, immigration, defense, and the war in Israel-Palestine.
Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump by voters in all ten states on healthcare, abortion, election integrity, and the environment.
Whilst voters in eight of the ten states (41% to 46%) trust Trump more on policing and crime, pluralities of voters in Michigan (41%) and New Mexico (39%) trust Harris more than Trump on this issue.
Similarly, voters in six of the ten states trust Trump more on the war in Ukraine, whilst voters in Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico trust Harris more on this issue. In Wisconsin, an equal percentage of voters (38%) trust Harris as trust Trump.
Voters in seven of the ten states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) trust Harris more on the rule of law, whilst voters in Florida and North Carolina trust Trump more on this issue. In Nevada, as many voters (36%) trust Trump as trust Harris on this issue.
At the same time, more voters in all ten states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on the issues of the economy, healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
More voters in eight of the ten states also lean towards the Democratic position on the war in Ukraine. Voters in nine of the ten states lean towards the Democratic position on inflation, whilst as many voters in Nevada lean towards the Republican as Democratic position.
On the issue of policing and crime, voters in six states lean towards the Democratic position, whilst voters in North Carolina and Pennsylvania lean towards the Republican position. An equal percentage of voters in Arizona and Florida lean towards each party on this issue.
More voters lean towards the Republican position on immigration in every state apart from Georgia and New Mexico. Additionally, the Republican position on the issue of defense is more popular in seven of the ten swing states, whilst voters in Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico lean towards the Democratic stance.
Voters in six of the ten states now lean towards the Democratic position on the war in Israel-Palestine. Voters in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada lean towards the Republican position, whilst as many voters lean towards Democrat as Republican on this issue in Pennsylvania.
