In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just three weeks away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched last October our Swing State tracker poll.
This week’s iteration includes Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 9,667 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in four out of ten swing states: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada & Pennsylvania. They both lead in three states.
Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris has lost her narrow leads in both Michigan and Nevada (both of which are now tied), but has maintained her one-point advantage in Wisconsin. Donald Trump has widened his leads in both Arizona (+2%, +1) and Florida (+6%, +2), but has lost his narrow one and two-point leads he held in Georgia and Pennsylvania when we last polled those two states.
In every state polled except Florida (Trump +6%) and Minnesota (Harris +8%), the candidates are either tied or the lead for either Trump or Harris is within the margin of error.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Minnesota (233,012), Nevada (33,596), New Mexico (99,720) Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in Florida (371,686) and North Carolina (74,483).
Between 2% and 4% of likely voters in the states polled remain undecided how they will vote in the Presidential Election.
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris. Between 9% and 18% of Biden 2020 voters in the ten states polled now say they will vote for Trump, while between 5% and 11% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.
Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in eight out of the ten states polled, with Minnesota and Wisconsin the only exceptions. Between 85% and 92% of 2020 Trump voters now say they will vote for Trump again in November, compared to between 78% and 89% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.
The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state polled. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issues in each state polled except for Georgia, where healthcare is the third most commonly cited issue, ahead of immigration.
When voters are asked how important various issues will be in determining how they vote in November, between 57% and 72% say the cost of living will be ‘extremely’ important, making it the most important issue. The cost of healthcare is the second most frequently sighted issue as being ‘extremely’ important in all ten states (51% to 62%).
Around half of all voters in each state consider taxation (47% to 56%), election integrity (48% to 56%), defense (38% to 55%), and illegal immigration (42% to 55%), to be ‘extremely’ important in determining their vote.
In Arizona’s Senate election, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, by five points (47%, -1 to 42%, –). Gallego’s lead is down one point from our previous swing state voting intention poll. Gallego polls a one point higher share of the vote in our Senate poll as Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Lake lags behind Trump by six points.
In Florida’s Senate election, Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent and former Governor, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic challenger, by three points (45%, +1 to 42%, +1), a margin that is unchanged from our previous poll. Scott polls five points behind Trump in the state, whilst Mucarsel-Powell polls two points lower than Harris does in Florida.
In Michigan’s Senate election, Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate, leads Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, by four points (44%, -1 to 40%, +1). Slotkin’s lead is two points narrower than in our previous poll, while she also polls three points lower than Harris does in our Presidential Voting Intention Poll. In comparison, Republican challenger Mike Rogers lags Trump’s Presidential polling by seven points. 10% of voters in Michigan are still undecided how they will vote in the Senate race.
In Minnesota, the incumbent Democratic Senator, Amy Klobuchar, leads her Republican challenger, Royce White by seven points (42%, -4 to 35%, -3). Klobuchar polls nine points behind Harris in Minnesota, while Royce trails Trump’s vote share in our Presidential poll by eight points. 19% of Minnesotans say they are undecided how they will vote in the Senate race, compared to only 4% in the Presidential election (4%).
In Nevada, Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democratic Senator, leads Sam Brown, her Republican challenger, by five points (46%, -2 to 41%, –). Rosen’s vote share is one point lower than Harris’ in our Presidential Voting Intention poll, whereas Brown polls six points lower than Trump does in the State.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads the Republican candidate, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, by seven points (45%, -1 to 38%, +2). Stein’s lead over Robinson has narrowed by three points since we last polled this race two weeks ago. Stein polls one point lower than Harris does in North Carolina, while Robinson polls ten points worse than Trump does in the Tar Heel State.
President Biden holds a negative net approval rating among voters in six of nine states polled, with his ratings having worsened in six states since our previous swing states poll. His approval rating is highest in Michigan (+4%), while it is lowest in Pennsylvania (-7%).
By contrast, Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a positive net approval rating among voters in all nine states polled. Her net approval rating is highest in Minnesota (+12%) while it is lowest in Michigan and Pennsylvania (both +3%). Harris has also seen her net approval rating improve in seven of the nine states polled since our last swing states poll.
Former President Donald Trump holds a positive net favorability rating in four of the nine swing states polled and a negative rating in five states. His net favorability rating is highest in Florida and Georgia (both +5%) and is at its lowest in Minnesota (-12%). Trump’s ratings have worsened in five states from our previous poll and improved in another three.
Donald Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance holds a negative net favorability rating in four of the nine swing states, a positive rating in three states, and a neutral rating in two. His net favorability rating is highest in Florida and Georgia (both +6%) and lowest in New Mexico (-8%). His ratings have improved in every state polled since our previous poll.
Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz holds a net positive favorability rating in all nine swing states polled. He achieves his highest rating of +17% in New Mexico, and his net favorability rating is in the positive double digits in another seven states. His net approval ratings have improved in six states since our previous poll.
When it comes to their personal finances, pluralities of between 43% and 49% in all ten states say their financial situation has worsened in the past year. In every poll since we started our swing states tracker last October, around twice as many voters in every state polled have said their financial situation has worsened than improved in the past year.
Between 26% and 36% say their financial situation has stayed the same, while between one-fifth and one-third (19%-29%) say their situation has improved. In all ten states polled, between 27% and 38% say they are anxious in their ability to make ends meet.
As for the future, pluralities of voters in seven of the ten states (31% to 46%) now expect their financial situation to improve in the next year. Voters in Georgia (46%) are the most likely to say they believe their financial situation will improve next year. Between 21% and 33% think their situation will stay the same, while between one-fifth and one-quarter (19% to 25%) think their financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months.
More voters in all ten states trust Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump on five of the twelve issues prompted, namely healthcare, abortion, the rule of law, election integrity, and the environment.
Voters in seven of the ten swing states trust Harris more than Trump on both policing/crime and the war in Ukraine, and voters in six of the ten swing states also trust Harris more than Trump on defense and the war in Israel-Palestine.
On the economy, voters in seven of the ten states polled now trust Trump more than Harris, while voters in Arizona and Minnesota trust Harris more than Trump. Voters in Nevada (44% each) are evenly split.
On inflation, voters are evenly split. Voters in four of the ten swing states (Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) trust Trump more than Harris on the issue. Voters in Arizona, Georgia, and Minnesota trust Harris more than Trump on inflation, while voters in Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada are evenly split.
At the same time, voters in eight of the ten states polled trust Trump more than Harris on immigration, with Minnesota and Wisconsin the only exceptions.
At the same time, more voters in all ten states either ‘strongly lean’ or ‘lean’ towards the Democratic position on ten of the 12 policy issues listed, including on the economy, inflation, policing/crime, healthcare, abortion, and defense.
More voters in nine of the ten states lean towards the Democratic positions on the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel-Palestine, with voters in Pennsylvania leaning more towards the Republican than the Democratic position on the former issue (45% to 44%) and split evenly on the latter (44% for either party’s position).
More voters in six states lean more towards the Democratic than the Republican position on immigration, while more voters in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania lean more towards the Republican position.
