Redfield & Wilton Strategies latest voting intention poll conducted on Sunday the 26th of April finds the Conservative Party leading the Labour Party by 17%. This poll comes a bit more than one month after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced nationwide lockdown measures. The full numbers with their changes from our previous poll on the 17th of April are as follows:
Conservatives 50% (-2)
Labour 33% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
Scottish National Party 5% (–)
Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
Green 4% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)
As with our previous poll, a significant share of our sample said they would either not vote (5%) or would not know how they would vote (15%). Likelihood to vote decreased compared to last time, with 6% fewer respondents altogether saying either that they were ‘certain’ to vote or that they will ‘probably’ vote.[1]
Looking at specific parties, 2% more of those who voted Labour in 2019 this time stated they were certain to vote compared to our last poll. Meanwhile, 8% fewer of 2019 Conservative voters said they were certain to vote. As such, the extent to which likelihood to vote extends the Conservatives’ overall lead slightly declined.
Altogether, we see a slight but unsubstantial decrease in support for the Conservatives. However, these changes are so slight, such that we cannot determine if any recent events have had a measurable impact in voting intention.
[1] Note, when we ask respondents for their likelihood to vote, we typically ask for their likelihood to vote in general election to take place ‘tomorrow.’ Due to the coronavirus crisis, we have re-phrased this question to the ‘near future, when it is safe for an election to be held again.
[2] Due to rounding, percentages may add up to 99 or 101.
