Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest UK voting intention poll from yesterday finds the Conservative Party leading by 6%. Compared to our previous voting intention poll on the 18th of June, this lead is a slight 1% increase in the lead held by the Conservative Party. The full numbers for our voting intention poll (with their changes from 11 June in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 44% (+1)
Labour 38% (–)
Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 2% (-1)
Likelihood to vote remained constant this week, with 61% saying they are certain to vote, and a further 19% saying they probably will vote in the event of a general election in the near future.
Despite not representing a major change from our poll last week, the trend appears to be a stabilisation of the Conservative lead around 4-6%, with their 2% lead in our poll two weeks ago appearing more likely to have been an outlier. Nevertheless, recent events such as the loosening of the lockdown may have been in the minds of respondents to our poll this week and could partly explain this week’s results. It is worth noting, as a caveat, that our poll was in field and, in fact, nearly complete when Keir Starmer removed Rebecca Long-Bailey from his shadow cabinet.
Compared to last week, Boris Johnson increased his lead over Keir Starmer from 12% to 19% in a straight contest as to whom respondents would prefer as Prime Minister.
Johnson’s popularity as Prime Minister grew not only against Starmer, but also against his own Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. In a straight contest between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor over who would be a better Prime Minister for the UK at the present time, 44% selected Johnson and 31% selected Sunak. These figures represent a 13% lead for Johnson this week compared to his 7% lead last week, suggesting that enthusiasm for his leadership may be recovering after a difficult few weeks for the Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, in a straight contest between Sunak and Starmer over who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 42% selected Sunak and 33% selected Starmer. This 9% lead for Sunak is very similar to his 8% lead last week, when the same question was posed to respondents, however the proportion who selected the ‘don’t know’ option fell somewhat from 31% last week to 25% this week, suggesting that both Starmer and Sunak may be becoming increasingly well-known to the public.
While the Conservative lead in voting intention remains lower than it was in April, respondents’ support for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives appears to be stabilising, potentially as a result of recent decisions to ease lockdown measures and reactivate the UK economy. With many schools having reopened on the 1st of June, non-essential shops on the 15th of June, and soon also restaurants, pubs, and barber shops on the 4th of July, respondents might be more disposed to support the current Government as the UK gradually reopens and optimism grows.