Latest Red Wall Voting Intention (13-14 April 2024)

April 17, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Levelling Up | Red Wall | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research

One of the critical questions for the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can hold onto the mostly northern, traditionally Labour voting constituencies that they won in 2019—often described, if somewhat inaccurately, as the Red Wall.1 Accordingly, we at Redfield and Wilton Strategies have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.

In the forty ‘Red Wall’ seats that we poll, the Conservatives won all in 2019 but Hartlepool (which was won in a subsequent parliamentary by-election) with 46.7% of the vote to Labour’s 37.9%. Reform UK, previously known as the Brexit Party, came third in these seats with 6.5% of the vote.

Our latest Red Wall poll finds Labour leading the Conservatives by 20%, four points down from our previous poll conducted last month.

Labour’s share of the vote in today’s poll (44%) is the joint-lowest the party has ever achieved in our Red Wall tracker, tying the 44% the party polled on 10 May 2022. 

The Conservatives achieve their joint-lowest vote share (24%) since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, only three points above the lowest vote share (21%) they have ever achieved in our Red Wall polling (in mid-October 2022 when Liz Truss was still Prime Minister).

Reform UK, meanwhile, see their vote share increase by two points to a new record high of 18% in our Red Wall polling.

Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 16 March in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 44% (-4)
Conservative 24% (–)
Reform UK 18% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 6% (+1)
Green 5% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 8% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 79% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while only 46% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again—unchanged from last month and the joint-lowest percentage we have recorded since 17 October 2022 (40%, the final figure under Liz Truss).

24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK if a General Election were held tomorrow—the highest figure we have recorded in our Red Wall tracker—while a further 17% would vote for Labour.

55% of Red Wall voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the NHS (53%). Respondents also select immigration (38%), housing (21%), and benefits/poverty (18%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating in the Red Wall is up four points from last month to now stand at -21%. 

27% (+2) of those in the Red Wall, including 47% (+8) of 2019 Conservative voters, say they approve of Sunak’s performance. 48% (-2) of respondents disapprove. 

34% (+1) approve and 34% (–) disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance since he became Leader of the Labour Party, giving him a net approval rating of 0%, up one point from last month.  

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, Starmer (41%, –) leads Sunak (29%, +1) by 12 points. 30% (-1) say they don’t know. 

On policy delivery, respondents in the Red Wall are most likely to say they significantly (14%) or fairly (23%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on the economy. 36% significantly or fairly trust the party to deliver on national security and defence and the coronavirus pandemic.

By comparison, majorities of Red Wall voters say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on immigration (54%), ‘Levelling Up’ (53%), the NHS (52%), or benefits (51%).

With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (17%) or fairly (28%) trust Labour to deliver on the NHS. 45% of Red Wall voters also say they significantly or fairly trust Labour on education.

On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on immigration (42%) and the economy (40%).

When the two parties are pitted against each other on the issues, Labour are more frequently trusted than the Conservatives on every policy issue listed.

Labour holds leads of more than 20 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to support the NHS (40% to 17%) and to tackle poverty (38% to 17%).

Labour is also more trusted by Red Wall voters than the Conservatives to handle immigration (32% to 21%) and to manage the economy (33% to 24%).

Finally, on the cost-of-living crisis, 63% of members of the Red Wall public say no, the Government is not taking the right measures to address this crisis.

1 Prior to the 2019 General Election, the term ‘Red Wall’ originally pertained to a broader set of adjacent Labour-voting constituencies whose profile made them susceptible to being won by the Conservatives’ pro-Brexit platform. However, many of these constituencies were not ultimately won by the Conservative Party in 2019. Since then, the term ‘Red Wall’ has, in the media and elsewhere, interchangeably referred to both its original, broader definition and the traditionally Labour constituencies that the Conservatives won. For the purpose of this tracker polling, we refer to the post-2019 GE definition.

A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research