Latest GB Voting Intention, Extra Demographic Analysis (25-27 May 2024)

May 29, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Brexit | Conservative Party | Education | Family | GB Politics | Housing | Labour Party | Social Class | Transport | UK Elections | UK General Election 2024 | UK Politics | Voting Intention

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research

Yesterday, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies released our Mega Poll to start the 2024 General Election campaign. Between Saturday 25 May and Monday 27 May, we polled 12,000 Britons on how they will vote in the General Election on 4 July.

Today, we are releasing a further breakdown of our results by various demographic criteria, including how respondents voted in the 2016 EU Referendum, self-declared social status, and living arrangement.

First off, the EU Referendum vote.

The 2019 General Election has been accurately dubbed ‘The Brexit Election.’ On polling day, 12 December 2019, the Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, won a landslide majority behind the simple and effective slogan, ‘Get Brexit Done.’ 

Previous polling has shown that it was the Conservative Party’s commitment to Brexit—in addition to fears about Jeremy Corbyn and a fondness for Boris Johnson—that were the prime motivation for Conservative voters to vote as they did in 2019.

But, in the years since the 2019 vote, the Conservatives electoral coalition has fractured as the party has failed to find a rallying issue that can effectively replace Brexit to motivate voters to vote for them.

Now, we find that ‘Leave’ voters—an estimated 74% of whom backed the party in 2019—are evenly split between the Conservatives and Labour.

When weighted by likelihood to vote, and including undecided voters, 29% of those who voted to leave the European Union in 2019 intend to vote for Labour, with the same percentage likely to vote Conservative on 4 July. 21% of Leave voters say they will vote for Reform UK, while 11% are undecided how they will vote.

This finding is in line with the trends in our tracker polling, which has seen the Conservatives lead among Leave voters dwindle through 2022, before growing for much of 2023 and then falling again to reach parity with Labour for much of the period since late 2023.

Among those who voted to Remain in the European Union, Labour retains the wide lead it has done in our polling since the summer of 2021.

49% of those who voted Remain in 2016 say they intend to vote for Labour on 4 July, as compared to only 17% of those voters who say they will vote Conservative. The Liberal Democrats attract the support of 12% of Remain voters, 9% would vote for either the Greens (5%) or the Scottish National Party (4%) and a further 8% are undecided how they would vote.

Finally, among those who did not vote in the 2016 Referendum—which includes all voters between the ages of 18 and 25—Labour also holds a wide lead in our poll, although the Conservatives fare even worse with this group than they do with Remain voters.

46% of those who did not vote in the 2016 Referendum say they will vote for Labour, against only 13% who intend to vote Conservative. 10% of those who did note vote in 2016 intend to vote for Reform UK, while 14% don’t know how they will vote.

Secondly, when the electorate is divided into those respondents who have and have not got school-age children, the Labour Party leads the Conservatives by 29% among those voters who do have school-aged children, and by 16% among those voters who do not

The Labour Party attracts the support of 48% of voters who have school-aged children, while only 19% of voters who have school-aged children say they would vote for the Conservatives.

By comparison, 37% of those who do not have school-aged children say they will vote Labour, while 21% of the same cohort say they will vote for the Conservatives.

Between 1983 and 2010, the Conservatives won a higher share of the vote among owner-occupiers, those whom Margaret Thatcher championed as members of the “property-owning democracy,” than Labour in every election except for the Labour landslide victories in 1997 and 2001. Meanwhile, Labour took more votes from those who lived in social housing in every election during that period, while private renters oscillated between the Conservatives and Labour.

However, as analysis of our polling last June illustrated, the link between owning a home and voting Conservative appears to have been weakened, if not broken altogether.

Among those who own their own home, Labour leads the Conservatives by 11% in our latest poll (36% to 25%). This result is in line with the trend of our tracker polling which has seen Labour lead among this group consistently since last Autumn, following a period for much of 2023 when the two parties were neck-and-neck among homeowners.

When those who say they own their own home are broken down further, depending on the status of their mortgage, Labour leads the Conservatives among all three groups.

Labour leads by 5% among those who do not and did not have a mortgage (33% to 28%), by 6% among those who have a mortgage and have paid it off (33% to 27%), and by a yawning 22% among those who have a mortgage and have not yet paid it off (42% to 20%).

Among those who live in rented accommodation, a group with whom Labour has led consistently in our polling since October 2020, Labour currently leads the Conservatives by 35% (50% to 15%)

Among voters who live in the family home (predominantly younger voters), Labour now leads the Conservatives by 26% (41% to 15%).

When our voting intention poll of likely voters is broken down by self-declared social class, we find a wide gap between the voting intentions of the various classes.

Among voters who consider themselves working-class (who constitute 50% of likely voters), 46% would vote for Labour, while 15% would vote Conservative, a 31% lead for Labour.   

Among voters who consider themselves middle-class (who constitute 42% of likely voters), 37% would vote for Labour and 27% would vote Conservative, giving Labour a ten-point advantage with this cohort.

However, among the much smaller group who consider themselves upper-class (a mere 3% of likely voters), the Conservatives hold a 5% lead (30% to 25%). A further 13% each of upper-class voters would vote for either the Liberal Democrats or Reform UK.

With the 5% of likely voters who don’t know what social class they would put themselves in, Labour leads by 35% to 12%.

Finally, despite adopting a conspicuously pro-motorist policy agenda in the late summer and Autumn last year, the Conservatives trail Labour among both car and non-car owners.

Among likely voters who do own a car, a group with whom Labour has led in every poll since July 2022, Labour leads the Conservatives by 15% (38% to 23%). 12% of car owners would vote for Reform UK, while a further 10% of this group of voters are undecided.

Among likely voters who do not own a car, a group with whom Labour has led in every voting intention poll we have ever conducted, Labour’s lead is a yawning 36% (49% to 13%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research