Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 29%, one point higher as in our most recent poll on Thursday last week, and the largest lead we’ve ever recorded for any party. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 5 October in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 54% (+2)
Conservative 25% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 25%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 17% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 91% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 51% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (66%) are more likely than those who voted Conservative (60%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
The economy (66%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (57%). Respondents also select education (30%), taxation (25%), and immigration (23%).
A large plurality (41%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, while 15% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government, and 10% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -45% this week, the same as last Sunday. Altogether, only 13% find the Government competent (+1), and 58% find the Government incompetent (+1).
Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of -42%, up 2 points from our poll last Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds only 16% approving of her overall job performance (+1), against 58% disapproving (-1).
Similarly, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s net approval rating stands at -41%, up 3 points since Thursday last week.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +4%, down three points from Wednesday last week. 32% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 28% disapprove (+1).
And finally, Keir Starmer (49%, +5) leads Liz Truss (23%, -1) by 26 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment—larger than any lead Starmer had held over Boris Johnson before Johnson resigned.