Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 21%, three points up from our previous poll released on Monday last week, and the largest lead Labour has held over the Conservatives since 19 March. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 2 July in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 48% (+2)
Conservative 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
Reform UK 5% (–)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 88% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 57% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.

57% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (51%). Respondents also select immigration (28%), education (25%), and housing (21%).

39% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government. 19% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 9% expect a Conservative-led minority Government. 

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -23% this week, up eight points from last Sunday. Altogether, 23% find the Government competent (+5), while 46% find the Government incompetent (-3).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -16%, unchanged from our poll last Sunday, and the joint-lowest net approval rating he has held since 26 February. Yesterday’s poll finds 29% approving of his overall job performance (+3) against 45% (+3) disapproving. 

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +9%, up two points from last week. 36% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+3), while 27% disapprove (+1).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -15%, down three points from last Sunday. Overall, 37% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+3), and 22% approve (–). 

And finally, Keir Starmer (42%, +4) leads Rishi Sunak (32%, -2) by ten points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, the joint-largest lead he has held over Sunak since Sunak became Prime Minister in October.