Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 14%, three points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week, and the narrowest lead Labour has held over the Conservatives since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 2 April in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 30% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
Reform UK 6% (+1)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 12%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 87% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 62% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
59% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (56%). Respondents also select immigration (26%), education (26%), the environment (19%), and taxation (18%).
A plurality (35%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government. 19% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 14% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -24% this week, up four points from last Sunday. Altogether, 22% find the Government competent (+3), and 46% find the Government incompetent (-1).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -8%, up three points from our poll last Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 32% approving of his overall job performance (+1) against 40% (-2) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +8%, down two points from last week. 38% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+1), while 30% disapprove (+3).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -8%, up four points since last Sunday. Overall, 35% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (-1), and 27% approve (+3).
And finally, Keir Starmer (39%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (37%, +2) by two points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, his narrowest lead since 20 January.