Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 1%—a decrease of 4% from last week’s poll, with the lowest voting intention result for the Conservatives since we began tracking British voting intention in February 2020.

Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows: 

Conservative 37% (-3)

Labour 36% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 10% (–)

Green 6% (–)

Scottish National Party 5% (+1)

Reform UK 5% (+2)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 1%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 15% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample has 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. For the first time ever in our voting intention poll, those who say they would vote Labour (71%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who say they would vote Conservative (69%). The Conservative Party’s lowest-ever voting intention result this week is thus in part caused by a diminished motivation to vote among Conservative voters.

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (51%), the economy (40%), immigration (25%), the environment (25%), and education (24%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 37% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (no change). 16% expect a Labour Party majority (down 2%), 16% expect a Conservative Party-led minority Government (up 2%), and 5% expect a Labour Party-led minority Government (down 2%). 62% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 2%), whereas 40% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 4%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -16% in this week’s poll, decreasing four points since last week. Altogether, 26% find the Government competent (down 2%), 42% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -6%, a figure which has not changed in the past week. This week’s poll finds 42% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (down 1%).

This week, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has received his lowest-ever net approval rating since we began tracking his approval rating in April 2020, decreasing two points to +12%. 39% approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 3%), while 27% disapprove (down 1%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has decreased by one point in the past week, now standing at -9%. 34% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 1%), while 25% approve (down 2%). Meanwhile, 34% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 42% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which has increased marginally from 41%. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (no change).

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies descriptions such as ‘can build a strong economy’ (42% to 28%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (42% to 32%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (40% to 31%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 27%).

Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (38% to 28%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (35% to 32%), and ‘represents change’ (35% to 33%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (48%), ‘is creative’ (43%), and ‘prioritises the environment’ (42%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 37% say Boris Johnson (up 1%) and 31% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) would be the better Prime Minister.

Rishi Sunak holds a seven-point lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 39% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 32% who think Keir Starmer would be (down 2%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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