Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 9%––an increase of 3% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 45% (+1)

Labour 36% (-2)

Liberal Democrat 7% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (­–)

Green 4% (+1)

Reform UK 3% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 5% of those who voted Labour, and 32% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, an 8% decrease since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (70%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (55%). 2019 Labour voters are 7% less likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than last week. While almost a third of those who voted Liberal Democrat in 2019 do not know how they will vote now, 74% nevertheless say they are ‘certain to vote.’

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have also remained stable: 42% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 1% from last week) against 29% who think Labour. Those who say they would now vote Conservative are still significantly more confident of a Conservative victory (83%) than those who say they would now vote Labour are confident of a Labour victory (68%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at +3% in this week’s poll, an increase of 6% from last week and the Government’s first positive rating. Altogether, 33% find the Government incompetent (down 2%) and 36% find the Government competent (up 4%). 24% find the Government neither incompetent nor incompetent (down 3%).

For the fifth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +14%, a notable increase of 6% since last week and an increase of 11% from two weeks ago. This week’s poll finds 45% approving of his overall job performance, against 31% disapproving.

In light of the Budget this week, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has dipped with this week’s poll finding it at +29% (down 10%). 49% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 20% disapprove. Nevertheless, the Chancellor’s approval rating remains comfortably high following the Budget.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +5%, an increase of 1% since last week. 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 25% disapprove. A plurality (38%) of members of the public say their neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 50% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment, an increase of 2% from last week. 27% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister. Boris Johnson’s 23% lead is 5% higher than last week.

More specifically, Boris Johnson leads against Keir Starmer as best embodying the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (50% to 29%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (47% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (50% to 28%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (48% to 26%).

Boris Johnson also now holds leads against Keir Starmer as best embodying someone who ‘represents change’ (41% to 35%) and someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (37% to 32%). Keir Starmer previously consistently held leads against Boris Johnson in these areas.

Now, Keir Starmer only leads as best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (37% to 34%), and his lead has narrowed.

On the question of who better embodies the description, ‘tells the truth,’ respondents are noticeably unsure (39%).

Even though the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (44%) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (27%). Boris Johnson’s lead stands at +17%, an increase of 6% since last week.

Rishi Sunak holds an 10% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 40% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 30% who think Keir Starmer would be––a 1% decrease in Sunak’s lead compared to last week.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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