Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 22%, two points more than in our most recent poll released on Tuesday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 2-3 January in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 48% (+1)
Conservative 26% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
Reform UK 6% (+1)
Green 5% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 17% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 87% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 53% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
65% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, just ahead of healthcare (64%). Respondents also select immigration (28%), and education (25%).
A plurality (38%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government. Just 15% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 12% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -32% this week, down five points from Monday last week. Altogether, 17% find the Government competent (-1), and 49% find the Government incompetent (+4).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -11%, his lowest approval rating since becoming Prime Minister. Yesterday’s poll finds 28% approving of his overall job performance (+1) against 39% (+8) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +6%, down four points from last week. 34% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 28% disapprove (+2). Starmer last held a negative net approval rating on 7 September.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -13%, down four points since Monday last week. Overall, 36% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+3), and 23% approve (-1).
And finally, Keir Starmer (38%, +2) leads Rishi Sunak (37%, -1) by one point on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, having trailed Sunak by two points last week.