Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 5%––an increase of 3% from last week’s poll and a return to the same lead from our poll two weeks ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week) are as follows:

Conservative 43% (+3)

Labour 38% (–)

Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)

Scottish National Party 5% (–)

Green 4% (–)

Reform UK 2% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted Labour, and 26% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 62% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were noticeably more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (74%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (65%).

Meanwhile, 40% now expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats in the next election (up 3% from last week) against 32% who think Labour will (up 1% from last week).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating has improved in this week’s poll to -7%. While still negative, this result is noticeably better than the -13% result in last week’s poll. Altogether, 38% find the Government incompetent (down 2%) and 31% find the Government competent (up 4%).

For the second occasion since early September, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive. After last week’s slightly negative net approval rating, this week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance and 39% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also seen a moderate bounce. 51% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 18% disapprove, resulting in a net +33% approval rating (3% higher than last week’s poll).

Keir Starmer, meanwhile, has also seen a slight improvement in his net approval rating. 34% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 26% disapprove. A further third (34%) of members of the public say they neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance, suggesting that many are still unfamiliar with the Labour Leader’s work.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 45% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment. 32% think Keir Starmer would be. This 13% lead for Boris Johnson is his highest lead over Keir Starmer since 12 August 2020, when he led by 14%.

Even though the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (41%) is a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than those who think Rishi Sunak (30%) would be.

Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 40% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 34% who think Keir Starmer would be–a marginal 2% increase in Sunak’s lead compared to last week. 

Finally, Boris Johnson’s strong leads over Keir Starmer with respect to more specific areas have remained relatively unchanged. He leads on being most suited to “build a strong economy” (45% to 31%), “work with foreign leaders” (44% to 34%), “know how to get things done” (43% to 30%), “stand up for the interests of the United Kingdom” (48% to 31%), and, perhaps most importantly at this time, “tackle the coronavirus pandemic” (43% to 28%).

Keir Starmer “represents change” (39% to 36%), “cares about people like me” (37% to 33%), and appears to better fit the description “is in good physical and mental health” (42% to 29%).

A significant number of respondents (43%) continue to respond ‘don’t know’ when asked to select between the party leaders on the quality: tells the truth.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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