Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 4%, after being two points behind the Conservatives in Monday’s poll. This poll’s results mark Labour’s third lead in the past month and its largest lead since we began tracking voting intention following the 2019 General Election, alongside the lowest voting intention result we have recorded for the Conservative Party in the same time frame. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 6 December in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 38% (+2)

Conservative 34% (-4)

Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)

Green 6% (–)

Reform UK 5% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party also leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 18% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (up 5%), including 19% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 7%) and 7% of those who voted Labour (up 1%)—indicating that a substantial portion of this latest change in voting intention is due to some Conservative voters now saying they are undecided.

Today’s sample has 55% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (52%).

The considerable drop in support for the Conservative Party is in large part a consequence of news surrounding a Christmas Party that is alleged to have taken place in Downing Street last year, at a time when coronavirus restrictions forbade such gatherings. The British public is well aware of the reports: 43% say they have heard ‘a significant amount’ and 35% say they have heard ‘a fair amount’ about the Christmas Party news (just 1 in 5 say they have heard ‘a small amount’ or ‘nothing at all’ about this latest news).

Most Britons are taking the allegations very seriously: 69% of respondents say the Metropolitan Police should investigate the Christmas Party held in Downing Street last year. A majority of both 2019 Conservative voters (56%) and 2019 Labour voters (81%) agree that the party should be investigated. Conversely, a fifth (20%) of Britons do not believe the Metropolitan Police should investigate, a position held by 33% of Conservative voters.

Further, 63% believe the Prime Minister should resign if it is confirmed that the Christmas Party took place at a time when the Government had issued coronavirus restrictions which forbade such gatherings. In addition to 81% of Labour voters, a plurality (46%) of Conservative voters, too, think that Boris Johnson should resign in this situation.

A quarter (24%) of respondents hold the alternative view that the Prime Minister should not resign, increasing to 39% among Conservative voters.

While half (50%) of the British public indicates that the Christmas Party news will not impact their willingness to comply with potential future restrictions on gatherings, 29% say they are now less likely to comply with future coronavirus restrictions than they were before.

Younger respondents are particularly prone to saying they are less likely to comply with restrictions now, with 34% of 18-to-24-year-olds and 49% of 25-to-34-year-olds giving this response. However, a notable 31% of 18-to-24-year-olds also indicate that they are now more likely to comply, a position held by 16% of respondents overall.

As details surrounding the alleged Christmas Party continue to emerge, will Labour hold on to or extend its lead over the Conservatives? Check out our next voting intention poll being released on Monday at 5pm to find out!

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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