Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 12%, five points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week and tying their narrowest lead over the Conservatives since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. At 16%, the Liberal Democrats score their highest voting intention result in all our polling since the 2019 General Election.
Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 30 April in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 41% (-4)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 16% (+4)
Reform UK 5% (-2)
Green 4% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 11%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 8% of those who voted Liberal Democrat, and 4% of those who voted Labour.
85% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 58% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again. Meanwhile, 71% of those who voted Liberal Democrat in 2019 say they would vote Liberal Democrat again.
60% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (57%). Respondents also select immigration (27%), education (25%), housing (20%), the environment (19%), and policing/crime (18%).
35% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 13% would expect a Labour-led minority Government. 17% would expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 14% would expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -20% this week, three points up from last Sunday. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (–), and 44% find the Government incompetent (-3).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -7%, down two points from our poll last Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 33% approving of his overall job performance (-2) against 40% (–) disapproving.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -9%, the same as last Sunday. Overall, 38% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+2), and 29% approve (+2).
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, the same as last week. 38% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-1), while 28% disapprove (-1).
And finally, Keir Starmer (41%, –) leads Rishi Sunak (35%, -2) by six points on the question of who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.