Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 3%, the same margin as in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 28 February in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 40% (+2)
Conservative 37% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 2%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (down 1%), including 15% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 3%) and 8% of those who voted Labour (up 2%).
Today’s sample has 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (no change). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (68%, up 1%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (60%, up 5%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (54%), the economy (49%), education (24%), immigration (23%), housing (20%), and the environment (20%).
For the first time in eight weeks, a plurality (26%) of respondents believe a Conservative Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (up 3%). 23% expect a Labour Party majority (no change), 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (down 3%), and 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 1%). 48% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 3%), while 48% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 2%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -17% in this week’s poll, increasing by seven points since last week. Altogether, 27% find the Government competent (up 4%), 44% find the Government incompetent (down 3%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -7%—his highest net rating since 8 November after increasing 11 points from last week and 24 points from two weeks ago. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 6%), against 37% approving (up 5%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +15%, representing a 12-point increase from last week. 41% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 5%), while 26% disapprove (down 7%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has decreased three points to -3% this week. 32% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 2%), while 29% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 1%).
Boris Johnson (39%, up 3%) has regained his lead over Keir Starmer (35%, down 1%) in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the first lead we have recorded for Johnson in nine weeks.
Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 30%), ‘stands up for the interests of the UK’ (40% to 35%), and ‘can build a strong economy’ (39% to 35%), while respondents are divided on whether Starmer (38%) or Johnson (38%) best embodies ‘can work with foreign leaders.’
Keir Starmer’s leads over Boris Johnson remain substantial when it comes to best embodying the characteristics ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (43% to 23%), ‘cares about people like me’ (38% to 26%), and ‘represents change’ (40% to 29%).
Meanwhile, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is creative’ (48%), ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (45%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (39%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 33% say Rishi Sunak (down 4%) and 33% say Boris Johnson (up 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 34% say they don’t know (up 1%). These results represent the first time that Sunak has not led over Johnson in this respect since 6 December.
Rishi Sunak has regained a two-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (up 1%), against 35% who think Starmer would be (down 2%).