Latest GB Voting Intention (7 January 2024)

January 8, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ first national Westminster voting intention poll of 2024 finds the Labour Party leading by 16%, two points less than in our previous poll conducted on 17 December. For comparison, in our first Westminster voting intention poll of 2023 in Great Britain, Labour led the Conservatives by 20%.

Today’s result also marks the first time Reform UK (11%) has placed in third position in our Westminster Voting Intention poll.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 17 December in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 43% (+1)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Reform UK 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 14%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 3% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 54% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again. 15% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow, while 15% would also vote for Reform UK.

53% of British voters cite healthcare as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (52%). Respondents also select immigration (29%), education (27%), and housing (21%).

36% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government. 19% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 10% expect a Conservative-led minority Government. 

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -19% this week, up eleven points from 17 December. Altogether, 25% find the Government competent (+5), while 44% find the Government incompetent (-6).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -15%, up four points from our previous poll. This week’s poll finds 31% approving of his overall job performance (+3) against 46% (-1) disapproving. 

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +18%, up fourteen points from mid-December, and his highest net approval rating since 3 November 2022 (when it was also +18%). 44% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+7), while 26% disapprove (-7).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -7%, up two points from our previous poll. Overall, 35% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+1) and 28% approve (+3). 

And finally, Keir Starmer (45%, +6) leads Rishi Sunak (30%, -2) by 15 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, Starmer’s widest lead over Sunak since 19 November (when it was also 15%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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