Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 10%, a three-point increase to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 31 January in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 42% (+2)
Conservative 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
Green 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (no change), including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 2%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (no change).
Today’s sample has 56% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (no change). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (66%, down 1%) are equally likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ as those who voted Labour (66%, up 5%).
The economy is now the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select the economy (55%, up 6%), healthcare (52%, down 9%), immigration (25%, up 3%), taxation (24%, up 2%), and education (23%, down 7%).
For the fourth week in a row, a plurality (24%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (down 2%). 21% expect a Conservative majority (down 2%), 18% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (no change), and 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 1%). 40% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (no change), while 42% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 7%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -32% in this week’s poll, increasing three points since last week. Altogether, 19% find the Government competent (no change), 51% find the Government incompetent (down 3%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 2%).
At -26%, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has increased by one point compared to last week. This week’s poll finds 54% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 1%), against 28% approving (no change).
Decreasing three points from last week, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +8%, which is the lowest rating we have recorded for Sunak to date. 40% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 32% disapprove (up 2%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating remains at -1% this week. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 2%), while 32% approve (up 2%). Meanwhile, 29% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 5%).
Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson in terms of who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment: 40% think Starmer (down 3%) and 33% think Johnson (up 2%) would be the better Prime Minister.
Boris Johnson has regained his lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (36% to 32%), ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 33%), and ‘can build a strong economy’ (36% to 35%). Respondents are divided on whether Johnson (33%) or Starmer (33%) best embodies ‘knows how to get things done,’ with a further 33% saying they don’t know.
Starmer prevails order Johnson in all remaining areas, including significant leads when it comes to best embodying traits like ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (45% to 22%), ‘cares about people like me’ (40% to 23%), and ‘represents change’ (41% to 26%).
Meanwhile, pluralities continue to say they don’t know which of the two ‘is a strong leader’ (36%), ‘tells the truth’ (47%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (48%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 40% say Rishi Sunak (down 5%) and 29% say Boris Johnson (up 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment. Among 2019 Conservative voters, 49% say Johnson (up 5%) and 34% say Sunak (down 7%) would be better.
For the second time since we began tracking this question in June 2020, a slight plurality says Keir Starmer, rather than Rishi Sunak, would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 40% think Starmer would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (up 1%), against 38% who think Sunak would be (no change).