Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 5%, three points lower as in last Thursday’s poll.  Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 4 August in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 40% (–)

Conservative 35% (+3)

Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)

Green 5% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 15% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 66% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Yesterday’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (69%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (61%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (62%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (53%). Respondents also select immigration (24%), taxation (23%), and the environment (22%).

A plurality (27%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 23% expect a Conservative Party majority, 15% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating is -34% in this week’s poll, down two points from last Sunday. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (–), and 52% find the Government incompetent (+2).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -17%, up one point from our poll last Thursday. Yesterday’s poll finds 49% disapproving of his overall job performance (-1), against 32% approving (–).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -8%, down two points from on Thursday last week. 26% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (-1), while 34% disapprove (+1).

Keir Starmer (40%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (34%, +2) by six points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.

Finally, Liz Truss (38%, +1) leads Keir Starmer (35%, -) by three points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.